Price History
Opportunity Score
45- 14% below fair value+17 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Population growth slowing+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+4 pts
- Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish28Lucario Ultra Rare (CGC 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-11.1%). Estimated fair value is $1516 against a lowest active listing of $1301. Valuation confidence is high based on 14-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-11.1% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 1536.55 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 1503.66 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 1414.71 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.67 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.9 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,335 | PWCC | Graded | 87 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,462 | Mercari | Graded | 95 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,509 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 77 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,569 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 99 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,624 | Mercari | Graded | 81 | 6d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $1,662 | Mercari | Graded | 93 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,664 | eBay | Graded | 78 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,690 | Mercari | Graded | 62 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,700 | Mercari | Graded | 73 | 2d ago | May 31 | View |
| $1,708 | PWCC | Graded | 69 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,709 | eBay | Graded | 74 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $1,733 | PWCC | Graded | 66 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,135 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 18d ago |
| $1,241 | PWCC | Graded | 20d ago |
| $1,224 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 20d ago |
| $1,195 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 25d ago |
| $1,291 | eBay | Graded | 28d ago |
| $1,146 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 30d ago |
| $1,151 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 33d ago |
| $1,030 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 34d ago |
| $1,151 | Mercari | Graded | 40d ago |
| $1,004 | eBay | Graded | 44d ago |
| $983 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 52d ago |
| $987 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 53d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Rayquaza Ultra RareFossilSimulated
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Mew VMAX (Alt Art)FossilCGC 10Simulated
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