Sunflora
CGC 9SimulatedSunflora · Neo Genesis · Uncommon · 50
Character: Sunflora
Price History
Opportunity Score
52- 12% below fair value+14 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+6 pts
- Population growth slowing+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral55Sunflora (CGC 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-2.9%). Estimated fair value is $116 against a lowest active listing of $102. Valuation confidence is high based on 16-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 1.3%/mo — supply tightening across 6121 graded.
6,121 graded · 50% gem · +1.3%/mo
- Raw cost
- $102
- All-in cost
- $131+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $116
- Expected proceeds
- $30.2530% gem → $34.77 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$100.50
- Breakeven graded value
- $501value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 0.6dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 57.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +6.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 20active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $375mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $401cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $231
- Median
- $351
- Mean
- $348
- Max
- $450
Showing 38 of 38 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 111.81 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 117.84 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 112.34 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.71 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.9 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $401 | eBay | Graded | 64 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $410 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 61 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $417 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 81 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $421 | Mercari | Graded | 64 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $421 | Mercari | Graded | 81 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $421 | Mercari | Graded | 98 | 64d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $432 | eBay | Graded | 93 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $443 | Mercari | Graded | 100 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $452 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 75 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $458 | eBay | Graded | 70 | 59d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $459 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 78 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $470 | eBay | Graded | 82 | 55d ago | Jun 9 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $444 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 59d ago |
| $450 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 60d ago |
| $429 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 62d ago |
| $447 | eBay | Graded | 62d ago |
| $435 | PWCC | Graded | 62d ago |
| $421 | PWCC | Graded | 63d ago |
| $397 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 63d ago |
| $401 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 65d ago |
| $397 | eBay | Graded | 67d ago |
| $359 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 68d ago |
| $385 | PWCC | Graded | 69d ago |
| $369 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 69d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $511 · sales-derived, ungradedView $300 · TCGPlayer
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 QuilavaNeo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
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 HeracrossNeo GenesisBGS 9.5Simulated
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 SeadraNeo GenesisCGC 9Simulated
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 FlaaffyNeo GenesisSimulated
| $152 | $131 | 13.5% | 26.6% | 19 | 53 |