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Persian — Scarlet & Violet 151 — Uncommon

Persian

PSA 10Simulated

Persian · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Uncommon · 53

Character: Persian

high confidencebearish1730d 22.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$53.82
Lowest listing $41.2723.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$46.01
Base Case
$53.82
Bull Case
$60.92

Price History

Dec 8Range $151 – $226Jun 5

Opportunity Score

56
  • 23% below fair value+27 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • Population growth slowing+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+3 pts
  • Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish17

Persian (PSA 10) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-22.7%). Estimated fair value is $54 against a lowest active listing of $41. Valuation confidence is high based on 21-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-22.7% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
21
Sales / Month
5.0
Velocity Score
25/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+7.8%
Total Graded
1,608
Gem Mint
410
Population Growth
+1.3%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-80.0%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 5.0%/mo — steady supply across 3577 graded.

3,577 graded · 55% gem · +5.0%/mo

Raw cost
$41.27
All-in cost
$70.27+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$53.82
Expected proceeds
$14.0530% gem → $16.15 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$56.22
Breakeven graded value
$269value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
5.3dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
22.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-13.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
18active listings
Recent sold avg
$178mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$154cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$163
Median
$178
Mean
$182
Max
$209

Showing 10 of 10 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps60.8150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices45.6925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection46.0125%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-0.6350%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.5620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$154TCGPlayerGraded9862d agoJan 1View
$159Facebook MarketplaceGraded8858d agoJan 1View
$171MercariGraded7055d agoJan 1View
$173PWCCGraded8071d agoJan 1View
$175MercariGraded8556d agoJan 1View
$179PWCCGraded9471d agoJan 1View
$183Facebook MarketplaceGraded6673d agoJan 1View
$183TCGPlayerGraded7558d agoJan 1View
$183PWCCGraded8764d agoJan 1View
$188PWCCGraded9971d agoJan 1View
$190Facebook MarketplaceGraded9360d agoJun 10View
$191PWCCGraded8570d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$163TCGPlayerGraded55d ago
$170MercariGraded59d ago
$169eBayGraded62d ago
$179PWCCGraded68d ago
$209PWCCGraded88d ago
$177TCGPlayerGraded96d ago
$200Facebook MarketplaceGraded103d ago
$177TCGPlayerGraded106d ago
$184TCGPlayerGraded112d ago
$189MercariGraded114d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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