Gengar ex (Illustration Rare)
BGS 10SimulatedGengar ex (Illustration Rare) · HeartGold SoulSilver · Illustration Rare · 118/123
Character: Gengar
Price History
Opportunity Score
48- 16% below fair value+19 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+5 pts
- Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral53Gengar ex (Illustration Rare) (BGS 10) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-1.3%). Estimated fair value is $686 against a lowest active listing of $576. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (5.5%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 694.93 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 644.44 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 721.82 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.76 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.43 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $684 | PWCC | Graded | 17h ago |
| $637 | Mercari | Graded | 20h ago |
| $678 | Mercari | Graded | 1d ago |
| $678 | Mercari | Graded | 3d ago |
| $729 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 4d ago |
| $640 | eBay | Graded | 5d ago |
| $713 | eBay | Graded | 8d ago |
| $646 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 10d ago |
| $676 | eBay | Graded | 10d ago |
| $732 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 12d ago |
| $746 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 13d ago |
| $681 | PWCC | Graded | 14d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Umbreon PromoHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $396 | $342 | 13.6% | 3.9% | 3 | 52 |
Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $497 | $433 | 12.9% | 8.9% | 6 | 40 |
Umbreon Ultra RareHeartGold SoulSilverCGC 9Simulated
| $644 | $543 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 15 | 45 |
Gengar V (Full Art)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $357 | $301 | 15.6% | 5.2% | 21 | 49 |
Gengar Secret RareHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
| $744 | $730 | 1.9% | 21.7% | 4 | 44 |
Gengar ex (Special Illustration)Hidden FatesSimulated
| $308 | $259 | 16.1% | 5.3% | 20 | 38 |