Combusken
SimulatedCombusken · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Uncommon · 28
Character: Combusken
Price History
Opportunity Score
64- 23% below fair value+27 pts
- Sales accelerating+8 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- Low active inventory+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral48Combusken is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-5.7%). Estimated fair value is $81 against a lowest active listing of $62. Valuation confidence is high based on 4-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: softening prices (-5.7% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $62.31
- All-in cost
- $91.31+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $249
- Expected proceeds
- $65.0530% gem → $74.77 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$26.26
- Breakeven graded value
- $350value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.6dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 54.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -8.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 6active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $99.27mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $90.44cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $87.61
- Median
- $94.23
- Mean
- $94.23
- Max
- $102
Showing 10 of 13 sales · 3 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 78.79 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 72.69 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 80.73 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.11 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $83.00 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 61d ago |
| $118 | eBay | Near Mint | 79d ago |
| $106 | Mercari | Near Mint | 84d ago |
| $96.97 | Mercari | Near Mint | 86d ago |
| $92.86 | Mercari | Near Mint | 86d ago |
| $102 | Mercari | Near Mint | 90d ago |
| $96.64 | Mercari | Near Mint | 90d ago |
| $93.42 | PWCC | Near Mint | 90d ago |
| $88.50 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 94d ago |
| $96.16 | eBay | Near Mint | 97d ago |
| $94.71 | PWCC | Near Mint | 98d ago |
| $93.75 | eBay | Near Mint | 106d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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