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Arcanine — Base Set — Uncommon

Arcanine

Simulated

Arcanine · Base Set · Uncommon · 23

Character: Arcanine

high confidencebullish6930d ▲5.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$96.91
Lowest listing $106
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$81.91
Base Case
$96.91
Bull Case
$112

Price History

Dec 8Range $98.66 – $224Jun 5

Opportunity Score

32
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Price up 6% over 30 days+2 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish69

Arcanine is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+5.9%). Estimated fair value is $97 against a lowest active listing of $106. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+5.9% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
8.0
Velocity Score
40/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-5.8%
Confidence
80/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-18.1%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$106
All-in cost
$135+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$423
Expected proceeds
$11030% gem → $127 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$24.35
Breakeven graded value
$516value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
4.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
22.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-13.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
21active listings
Recent sold avg
$195mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$169cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$172
Median
$182
Mean
$185
Max
$205

Showing 10 of 12 sales · 2 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps94.8350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices106.8425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection95.6725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.1620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$169Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6664d agoJan 1View
$171PWCCNear Mint9555d agoJan 1View
$172eBayNear Mint9969d agoJun 7View
$176PWCCNear Mint8975d agoJan 1View
$176MercariNear Mint8766d agoJan 1View
$176TCGPlayerNear Mint7256d agoJun 8View
$176eBayNear Mint8165d agoJun 7View
$180MercariNear Mint9763d agoJan 1View
$188PWCCNear Mint8175d agoJan 1View
$191PWCCNear Mint9162d agoJan 1View
$195Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8561d agoJun 9View
$197TCGPlayerNear Mint7466d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$180TCGPlayerNear Mint59d ago
$180Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint60d ago
$196PWCCNear Mint66d ago
$180TCGPlayerNear Mint66d ago
$205PWCCNear Mint71d ago
$227TCGPlayerNear Mint84d ago
$192TCGPlayerNear Mint90d ago
$183MercariNear Mint92d ago
$186Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint93d ago
$172eBayNear Mint95d ago
$175MercariNear Mint95d ago
$141PWCCNear Mint111d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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