Bayleef
PSA 9SimulatedBayleef · Neo Genesis · Uncommon · 28
Character: Bayleef
Price History
Opportunity Score
51- Sales accelerating+10 pts
- 7% below fair value+9 pts
- Price up 21% over 30 days+8 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Low active inventory+3 pts
- Strong demand (9 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish85Bayleef (PSA 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+21.2%). Estimated fair value is $75 against a lowest active listing of $69. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+21.2% over 30d) with thin liquidity and rising graded population (6.0%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 6.6%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 3320 graded.
3,320 graded · 30% gem · +6.6%/mo
- Raw cost
- $69.48
- All-in cost
- $98.48+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $75.02
- Expected proceeds
- $19.5830% gem → $22.51 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$78.90
- Breakeven graded value
- $377value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 5.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 67.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +1.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 4active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $315mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $318cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $261
- Median
- $309
- Mean
- $310
- Max
- $343
Showing 10 of 10 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 67.58 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 79.55 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 80.1 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.99 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.92 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $343 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 58d ago |
| $307 | PWCC | Graded | 60d ago |
| $338 | Mercari | Graded | 61d ago |
| $261 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 67d ago |
| $303 | Mercari | Graded | 73d ago |
| $317 | Mercari | Graded | 84d ago |
| $340 | Mercari | Graded | 84d ago |
| $311 | PWCC | Graded | 89d ago |
| $306 | eBay | Graded | 97d ago |
| $271 | Mercari | Graded | 110d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $511 · sales-derived, ungradedView $300 · TCGPlayer
| $1,573 | $1,056 | 32.9% | 3.0% | 1 | 64 |
 SteelixNeo GenesisSimulated
| $249 | $226 | 9.0% | 1.7% | 7 | 34 |
 QuilavaNeo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
| $300 | $281 | 6.3% | 16.9% | 4 | 49 |
 HeracrossNeo GenesisBGS 9.5Simulated
| $211 | $181 | 14.5% | 17.0% | 15 | 58 |
 SeadraNeo GenesisCGC 9Simulated
| $236 | $197 | 16.3% | 25.2% | 9 | 51 |
 FlaaffyNeo GenesisSimulated
| $152 | $140 | 8.4% | 26.6% | 12 | 45 |