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Lotad — Evolving Skies — Common

Lotad

PSA 10Simulated

Lotad · Evolving Skies · Common · 32

Character: Lotad

high confidenceneutral5830d ▼0.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$123
Lowest listing $1174.7% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$102
Base Case
$123
Bull Case
$144

Price History

Dec 8Range $107 – $199Jun 5

Opportunity Score

32
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (20 sales/mo)+6 pts
  • 5% below fair value+6 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral58

Lotad (PSA 10) is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-0.0%). Estimated fair value is $123 against a lowest active listing of $117. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (5.2%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
12
Sales / Month
19.5
Velocity Score
98/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-4.8%
Total Graded
6,490
Gem Mint
2,264
Population Growth
+5.2%
Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-78.0%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 4.6%/mo — steady supply across 4807 graded.

4,807 graded · 58% gem · +4.6%/mo

Raw cost
$117
All-in cost
$146+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$123
Expected proceeds
$32.0630% gem → $36.85 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$114.01
Breakeven graded value
$560value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
60.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-24.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
10active listings
Recent sold avg
$133mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$101cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$122
Median
$133
Mean
$134
Max
$149

Showing 19 of 24 sales · 5 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps128.7750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices129.5825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection122.3325%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-2.6250%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.9520%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$101eBayGraded7055d agoJan 1View
$102MercariGraded7965d agoJan 1View
$105TCGPlayerGraded8275d agoJan 1View
$105MercariGraded7056d agoJan 1View
$106TCGPlayerGraded6266d agoJun 8View
$109PWCCGraded7166d agoJan 1View
$109Facebook MarketplaceGraded7858d agoJun 8View
$119TCGPlayerGraded8672d agoJan 1View
$119eBayGraded9656d agoJan 1View
$131Facebook MarketplaceGraded6970d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$107eBayGraded58d ago
$108eBayGraded58d ago
$111eBayGraded59d ago
$122Facebook MarketplaceGraded62d ago
$133eBayGraded62d ago
$141MercariGraded64d ago
$127TCGPlayerGraded68d ago
$136MercariGraded71d ago
$135Facebook MarketplaceGraded75d ago
$128PWCCGraded75d ago
$133eBayGraded75d ago
$132MercariGraded77d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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