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Lucario Promo

CGC 9.5Simulated

Lucario Promo · Neo Genesis · Promo · 41/111

Character: Lucario

high confidencebullish8130d 15.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$427
Lowest listing $432
Bear Case
$358
Base Case
$427
Bull Case
$497

Price History

Dec 2Range $395$645May 30

Opportunity Score

29
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Price up 15% over 30 days+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (7 sales/mo)+2 pts
  • Sales accelerating+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish81

Lucario Promo (CGC 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+15.3%). Estimated fair value is $427 against a lowest active listing of $432. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+15.3% over 30d) with thin liquidity and rising graded population (7.0%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
22
Sales / Month
7.0
Velocity Score
35/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+3.8%
Total Graded
2,856
Gem Mint
879
Population Growth
+7.0%
Rising — supply pressure

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps410.7250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices496.0225%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection437.1925%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.4950%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.7520%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$376MercariGraded974d agoJan 1View
$391TCGPlayerGraded616d agoJan 1View
$398Facebook MarketplaceGraded6516d agoJan 1View
$398PWCCGraded1002d agoJan 1View
$399TCGPlayerGraded6819d agoJan 1View
$410PWCCGraded7416d agoJan 1View
$421eBayGraded7917d agoJun 2View
$424eBayGraded945d agoJan 1View
$430MercariGraded8219d agoJan 1View
$430MercariGraded7323h agoJan 1View
$439Facebook MarketplaceGraded615d agoJan 1View
$461Facebook MarketplaceGraded836d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$428Facebook MarketplaceGraded5d ago
$472PWCCGraded7d ago
$552TCGPlayerGraded21d ago
$502Facebook MarketplaceGraded29d ago
$426eBayGraded31d ago
$397eBayGraded34d ago
$415TCGPlayerGraded38d ago
$482PWCCGraded42d ago
$433Facebook MarketplaceGraded43d ago
$448eBayGraded44d ago
$417PWCCGraded46d ago
$493Facebook MarketplaceGraded50d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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