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Kakuna — Base Set — Uncommon

Kakuna

BGS 9Simulated

Kakuna · Base Set · Uncommon · 33

Character: Kakuna

high confidencebearish1230d 15.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$85.32
Lowest listing $71.6816.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$73.17
Base Case
$85.32
Bull Case
$97.37

Price History

Dec 8Range $205 – $423Jun 5

Opportunity Score

39
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish12

Kakuna (BGS 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-15.9%). Estimated fair value is $85 against a lowest active listing of $72. Valuation confidence is high based on 10-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-15.9% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and rising graded population (6.6%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
10
Sales / Month
6.5
Velocity Score
33/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+1.9%
Total Graded
1,151
Gem Mint
542
Population Growth
+6.6%
Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-77.9%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 6.3%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 3322 graded.

3,322 graded · 34% gem · +6.3%/mo

Raw cost
$71.68
All-in cost
$101+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$85.32
Expected proceeds
$22.2730% gem → $25.60 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$78.41
Breakeven graded value
$386value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
55.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-22.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
17active listings
Recent sold avg
$274mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$212cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$197
Median
$293
Mean
$290
Max
$374

Showing 33 of 33 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps93.2350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices81.6625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection83.5525%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.3250%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.3720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$212eBayGraded7175d agoJan 1View
$215Facebook MarketplaceGraded8365d agoJan 1View
$217TCGPlayerGraded6156d agoJan 1View
$220eBayGraded9055d agoJan 1View
$222eBayGraded8158d agoJan 1View
$223TCGPlayerGraded6775d agoJan 1View
$238TCGPlayerGraded7266d agoJan 1View
$240MercariGraded9659d agoJan 1View
$244Facebook MarketplaceGraded6575d agoJan 1View
$245TCGPlayerGraded7971d agoJan 1View
$253Facebook MarketplaceGraded8367d agoJan 1View
$260Facebook MarketplaceGraded8361d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$228PWCCGraded55d ago
$223MercariGraded56d ago
$219TCGPlayerGraded58d ago
$266TCGPlayerGraded60d ago
$197Facebook MarketplaceGraded63d ago
$269PWCCGraded66d ago
$273PWCCGraded67d ago
$240Facebook MarketplaceGraded70d ago
$268PWCCGraded73d ago
$248TCGPlayerGraded73d ago
$268PWCCGraded74d ago
$296PWCCGraded76d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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