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Dec 2Range $251 – $498May 30
Estimated Fair Value
$381
Lowest listing $3605.7% below
Bear Case
$318
Base Case
$381
Bull Case
$446
Price History
Opportunity Score
31- 6% below fair value+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+3 pts
- Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral49Gengar Holo Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-3.6%). Estimated fair value is $381 against a lowest active listing of $360. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
9.5
Velocity Score
48/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+8.5%
Confidence
96/100
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 360.79 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 419.62 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 359.24 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.7 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $387 | Mercari | Near Mint | 75 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $405 | Mercari | Near Mint | 65 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $410 | eBay | Near Mint | 71 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $410 | Mercari | Near Mint | 93 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $421 | Mercari | Near Mint | 61 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $431 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 64 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $431 | eBay | Near Mint | 81 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $432 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 74 | 23h ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $467 | PWCC | Near Mint | 77 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $480 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 85 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $490 | PWCC | Near Mint | 85 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $515 | PWCC | Near Mint | 78 | 20d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $410 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 3d ago |
| $399 | PWCC | Near Mint | 5d ago |
| $422 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 7d ago |
| $416 | Mercari | Near Mint | 8d ago |
| $430 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 11d ago |
| $424 | eBay | Near Mint | 12d ago |
| $385 | eBay | Near Mint | 13d ago |
| $386 | eBay | Near Mint | 13d ago |
| $423 | Mercari | Near Mint | 17d ago |
| $416 | Mercari | Near Mint | 21d ago |
| $417 | PWCC | Near Mint | 22d ago |
| $451 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 24d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
| $9,598 | $9,364 | 2.4% | 39.9% | 20 | 42 |
Rayquaza ex (Illustration Rare)Base SetSimulated
| $937 | $850 | 9.3% | 12.1% | 17 | 41 |
Base Set Booster Box (Sealed)Base SetSimulated
| $47,358 | $40,140 | 15.2% | 10.7% | 8 | 54 |
Umbreon ex (Special Illustration)Base SetSimulated
| $2,032 | $1,727 | 15.0% | 15.4% | 19 | 40 |
Pikachu Ultra RareBase SetBGS 9Simulated
| $1,221 | $1,276 | -4.5% | 43.3% | 7 | 41 |
Mewtwo Ultra RareBase SetPSA 10Simulated
| $1,987 | $1,898 | 4.5% | 11.8% | 23 | 33 |