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Kakuna — Base Set — Uncommon

Kakuna

Simulated

Kakuna · Base Set · Uncommon · 33

Character: Kakuna

medium confidencebearish1830d ▼30.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$58.97
Lowest listing $45.5222.8% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$47.89
Base Case
$58.97
Bull Case
$69.30

Price History

Dec 8Range $109 – $239Jun 5

Opportunity Score

56
  • 23% below fair value+27 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts
  • Low active inventory+4 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish18

Kakuna is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-30.4%). Estimated fair value is $59 against a lowest active listing of $46. Valuation confidence is medium based on 6-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-30.4% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
6
Sales / Month
4.5
Velocity Score
23/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+15.3%
Confidence
63/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-36.2%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$45.52
All-in cost
$74.52+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$182
Expected proceeds
$47.5230% gem → $54.62 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.00
Breakeven graded value
$286value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
73.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-14.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
8active listings
Recent sold avg
$198mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$169cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$179
Median
$201
Mean
$205
Max
$239

Showing 35 of 35 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps63.2650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices52.5525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection49.8225%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.0620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$169TCGPlayerNear Mint8955d agoJan 1View
$174PWCCNear Mint9660d agoJan 1View
$188Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9663d agoJan 1View
$193eBayNear Mint9260d agoJun 8View
$202eBayNear Mint8355d agoJan 1View
$206eBayNear Mint7374d agoJun 6View
$213MercariNear Mint6167d agoJun 6View
$214PWCCNear Mint6366d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$207MercariNear Mint56d ago
$209Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint56d ago
$183PWCCNear Mint57d ago
$192PWCCNear Mint58d ago
$189eBayNear Mint59d ago
$221Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint59d ago
$203MercariNear Mint60d ago
$196TCGPlayerNear Mint62d ago
$203PWCCNear Mint63d ago
$206PWCCNear Mint63d ago
$200Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint63d ago
$190Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint65d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
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