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Dec 2Range $1.6K – $2.2KMay 30
Estimated Fair Value
$1,926
Lowest listing $1,7618.5% below
Bear Case
$1,667
Base Case
$1,926
Bull Case
$2,176
Price History
Opportunity Score
40- 9% below fair value+10 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Low active inventory+3 pts
- Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral41Charizard Ultra Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-5.8%). Estimated fair value is $1926 against a lowest active listing of $1761. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: softening prices (-5.8% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Active Listings
7
Sales / Month
5.5
Velocity Score
28/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+22.2%
Confidence
76/100
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 1800.12 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 2034.55 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 1740.16 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.44 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1,814 | Mercari | Near Mint | 83 | 16d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $1,883 | PWCC | Near Mint | 69 | 18d ago | Jun 3 | View |
| $2,006 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 90 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,040 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 85 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,051 | PWCC | Near Mint | 98 | 10d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,061 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 73 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $2,089 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 81 | 2d ago | May 31 | View |
| $2,346 | eBay | Near Mint | 85 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,994 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 3d ago |
| $1,686 | Mercari | Near Mint | 9d ago |
| $1,669 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 11d ago |
| $1,688 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 11d ago |
| $1,572 | PWCC | Near Mint | 18d ago |
| $1,708 | PWCC | Near Mint | 25d ago |
| $1,530 | Mercari | Near Mint | 31d ago |
| $1,669 | eBay | Near Mint | 36d ago |
| $1,645 | eBay | Near Mint | 49d ago |
| $1,936 | eBay | Near Mint | 58d ago |
| $1,997 | PWCC | Near Mint | 60d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard GX (Shiny)Hidden FatesPSA 10Simulated
| $783 | $690 | 11.9% | 2.7% | 14 | 49 |
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
| $6,998 | $6,688 | 4.4% | 16.7% | 12 | 28 |
Charizard Holo RareEvolving SkiesSimulated
| $216 | $174 | 19.4% | 20.2% | 16 | 43 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)Evolving SkiesBGS 9.5Simulated
| $538 | $488 | 9.3% | 5.0% | 21 | 35 |
Charizard Ultra RareHidden FatesSimulated
| $439 | $383 | 12.7% | 16.7% | 17 | 45 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $946 | $838 | 11.4% | 3.8% | 17 | 39 |