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Zeraora VMAX — Crown Zenith — Rare Holo VMAX

Zeraora VMAX

Simulated

Zeraora VMAX · Crown Zenith · Rare Holo VMAX · 54

Character: Zeraora

medium confidencebearish2130d 14.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$9.41
Lowest listing $7.7217.9% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$7.70
Base Case
$9.41
Bull Case
$11.03

Price History

Dec 8Range $46.23 – $75.86Jun 5

Opportunity Score

43
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Low active inventory+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish21

Zeraora VMAX is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-14.1%). Estimated fair value is $9 against a lowest active listing of $8. Valuation confidence is medium based on 5-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-14.1% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
5
Sales / Month
3.0
Velocity Score
15/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
-1.0%
Confidence
49/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-78.0%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$7.72
All-in cost
$36.72+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$30.88
Expected proceeds
$8.0630% gem → $9.26 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.66
Breakeven graded value
$141value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
3.3dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
39.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-8.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
11active listings
Recent sold avg
$66.14mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$60.32cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$62.91
Median
$67.62
Mean
$67.81
Max
$75.16

Showing 9 of 11 sales · 2 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps10.3750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices8.6825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection8.325%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$60.32TCGPlayerNear Mint8365d agoJan 1View
$60.86TCGPlayerNear Mint6370d agoJan 1View
$62.84TCGPlayerNear Mint9356d agoJun 10View
$65.52Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9467d agoJan 1View
$65.88MercariNear Mint7660d agoJun 7View
$66.41PWCCNear Mint8566d agoJan 1View
$67.72Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6470d agoJan 1View
$67.81eBayNear Mint8057d agoJan 1View
$69.02eBayNear Mint9663d agoJan 1View
$73.17eBayNear Mint6971d agoJan 1View
$75.24eBayNear Mint6256d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$67.62TCGPlayerNear Mint54d ago
$64.64PWCCNear Mint54d ago
$65.75eBayNear Mint56d ago
$65.36eBayNear Mint60d ago
$68.89eBayNear Mint78d ago
$62.91MercariNear Mint82d ago
$67.81PWCCNear Mint84d ago
$55.89Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint91d ago
$54.97Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint101d ago
$72.14eBayNear Mint108d ago
$75.16MercariNear Mint112d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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