Charmander
SimulatedCharmander · XY Evolutions · Common · 9
Character: Charmander
Price History
Opportunity Score
40- 16% below fair value+19 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish21Charmander is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-21.0%). Estimated fair value is $49 against a lowest active listing of $41. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-21.0% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $41.05
- All-in cost
- $70.05+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $164
- Expected proceeds
- $42.8630% gem → $49.26 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$27.19
- Breakeven graded value
- $268value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.9dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 43.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -19.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 21active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $98.43mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $78.98cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $78.38
- Median
- $103
- Mean
- $105
- Max
- $136
Showing 21 of 21 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 53.3 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 45.87 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 46.57 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -1.58 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $78.98 | PWCC | Near Mint | 80 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $79.21 | PWCC | Near Mint | 97 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $80.67 | eBay | Near Mint | 92 | 69d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $82.01 | Mercari | Near Mint | 95 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $82.66 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 67 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $84.19 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 81 | 66d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $86.38 | Mercari | Near Mint | 68 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $91.28 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 81 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $93.05 | Mercari | Near Mint | 99 | 69d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $93.78 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 84 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $94.18 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 82 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $94.77 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 86 | 66d ago | Jun 9 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $85.79 | Mercari | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $88.82 | PWCC | Near Mint | 60d ago |
| $85.09 | PWCC | Near Mint | 60d ago |
| $78.38 | Mercari | Near Mint | 62d ago |
| $87.46 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 64d ago |
| $91.77 | Mercari | Near Mint | 66d ago |
| $98.71 | eBay | Near Mint | 68d ago |
| $94.44 | Mercari | Near Mint | 69d ago |
| $92.54 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 69d ago |
| $101 | eBay | Near Mint | 69d ago |
| $105 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 71d ago |
| $105 | Mercari | Near Mint | 78d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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