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Lucario ex (Special Illustration)

Simulated

Lucario ex (Special Illustration) · Neo Genesis · Special Illustration Rare · 65/111

Character: Lucario

high confidenceneutral4530d 8.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$881
Lowest listing $8118.0% below
Bear Case
$755
Base Case
$881
Bull Case
$1,005

Price History

Dec 2Range $571 – $958May 30

Opportunity Score

34
  • 8% below fair value+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Strong demand (19 sales/mo)+6 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral45

Lucario ex (Special Illustration) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-8.9%). Estimated fair value is $881 against a lowest active listing of $811. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: softening prices (-8.9% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
12
Sales / Month
19.0
Velocity Score
95/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-6.9%
Confidence
97/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps894.6450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices928.3125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection856.5625%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.3920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$797TCGPlayerNear Mint684d agoJun 3View
$825TCGPlayerNear Mint7813d agoJan 1View
$827eBayNear Mint929d agoJan 1View
$832eBayNear Mint939d agoJun 3View
$855MercariNear Mint665d agoJan 1View
$882TCGPlayerNear Mint8717d agoJun 1View
$922eBayNear Mint8720d agoJun 3View
$943MercariNear Mint6220d agoJan 1View
$953eBayNear Mint952d agoJan 1View
$992Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint941d agoJun 1View
$1,010Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8817d agoMay 31View
$1,011TCGPlayerNear Mint8410d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$952Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint10h ago
$843eBayNear Mint5d ago
$735PWCCNear Mint18d ago
$885MercariNear Mint20d ago
$819PWCCNear Mint32d ago
$866Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint33d ago
$763eBayNear Mint43d ago
$837PWCCNear Mint47d ago
$975eBayNear Mint51d ago
$871TCGPlayerNear Mint53d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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