Sunflora
BGS 10SimulatedSunflora · Neo Genesis · Uncommon · 50
Character: Sunflora
Price History
Opportunity Score
38- 9% below fair value+10 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+4 pts
- Population growth slowing+2 pts
- Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
- Price up 3% over 30 days+1 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral56Sunflora (BGS 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+2.7%). Estimated fair value is $81 against a lowest active listing of $74. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 0.8%/mo — supply tightening across 7869 graded.
7,869 graded · 32% gem · +0.8%/mo
- Raw cost
- $74.02
- All-in cost
- $103+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $81.27
- Expected proceeds
- $21.2130% gem → $24.38 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$81.81
- Breakeven graded value
- $395value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.4dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 29.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +11.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 20active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $262mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $290cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $227
- Median
- $262
- Mean
- $280
- Max
- $364
Showing 10 of 10 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 78.38 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 86.01 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 81.04 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.75 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.19 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $290 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 64 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $306 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 84 | 74d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $309 | PWCC | Graded | 87 | 65d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $312 | eBay | Graded | 86 | 61d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $316 | Mercari | Graded | 68 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $320 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 86 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $326 | PWCC | Graded | 76 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $333 | PWCC | Graded | 67 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $338 | Mercari | Graded | 60 | 73d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $342 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 72 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $345 | PWCC | Graded | 61 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $350 | eBay | Graded | 87 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $325 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 55d ago |
| $271 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 58d ago |
| $229 | eBay | Graded | 67d ago |
| $227 | eBay | Graded | 67d ago |
| $243 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 69d ago |
| $252 | Mercari | Graded | 75d ago |
| $254 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 80d ago |
| $292 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 82d ago |
| $364 | eBay | Graded | 99d ago |
| $344 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 108d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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