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Litleo — Evolving Skies — Common

Litleo

Simulated

Litleo · Evolving Skies · Common · 22

Character: Litleo

high confidencebullish8530d 11.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$110
Lowest listing $98.0410.6% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$94.58
Base Case
$110
Bull Case
$125

Price History

Dec 8Range $63.05 – $111Jun 5

Opportunity Score

40
  • 11% below fair value+12 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Price up 12% over 30 days+5 pts
  • Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish85

Litleo is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+11.9%). Estimated fair value is $110 against a lowest active listing of $98. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+11.9% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
20
Sales / Month
12.0
Velocity Score
60/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-0.2%
Confidence
98/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-19.4%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$98.04
All-in cost
$127+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$392
Expected proceeds
$10230% gem → $118 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$24.69
Breakeven graded value
$487value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
46.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-22.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
13active listings
Recent sold avg
$79.83mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$61.96cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$64.36
Median
$84.07
Mean
$84.34
Max
$105

Showing 14 of 14 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps10850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices110.6825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection112.1125%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.0320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$61.96MercariNear Mint6674d agoJan 1View
$65.28eBayNear Mint8071d agoJan 1View
$65.85MercariNear Mint9573d agoJun 9View
$67.17PWCCNear Mint6875d agoJan 1View
$70.42MercariNear Mint8356d agoJun 9View
$70.91TCGPlayerNear Mint7575d agoJun 9View
$71.44eBayNear Mint7163d agoJan 1View
$72.73PWCCNear Mint6658d agoJan 1View
$76.86eBayNear Mint9274d agoJun 8View
$78.62MercariNear Mint9560d agoJan 1View
$79.64TCGPlayerNear Mint7759d agoJun 8View
$79.97TCGPlayerNear Mint6557d agoJun 10View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$64.36MercariNear Mint56d ago
$68.03MercariNear Mint57d ago
$71.95eBayNear Mint58d ago
$64.44Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint62d ago
$75.18Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint68d ago
$71.11eBayNear Mint69d ago
$78.97PWCCNear Mint74d ago
$93.42Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint76d ago
$89.17TCGPlayerNear Mint79d ago
$96.56TCGPlayerNear Mint79d ago
$105MercariNear Mint89d ago
$97.86PWCCNear Mint96d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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