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Ludicolo — Evolving Skies — Rare Holo

Ludicolo

Simulated

Ludicolo · Evolving Skies · Rare Holo · 34

Character: Ludicolo

high confidenceneutral4330d 7.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$12.06
Lowest listing $10.4313.5% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$10.35
Base Case
$12.06
Bull Case
$13.74

Price History

Dec 8Range $49.52 – $95.64Jun 5

Opportunity Score

53
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts
  • Low active inventory+4 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral43

Ludicolo is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-7.6%). Estimated fair value is $12 against a lowest active listing of $10. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: softening prices (-7.6% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
6
Sales / Month
13.5
Velocity Score
68/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+24.3%
Confidence
89/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-72.4%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$10.43
All-in cost
$39.43+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$41.72
Expected proceeds
$10.8930% gem → $12.52 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.54
Breakeven graded value
$151value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
58.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-5.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
15active listings
Recent sold avg
$59.61mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$56.44cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$51.27
Median
$65.40
Mean
$70.41
Max
$95.08

Showing 35 of 35 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps11.6450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices11.5425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection11.1925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.8620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$56.44PWCCNear Mint7761d agoJan 1View
$58.90TCGPlayerNear Mint7574d agoJan 1View
$61.21MercariNear Mint8256d agoJun 7View
$63.81Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8674d agoJan 1View
$65.65MercariNear Mint9860d agoJan 1View
$65.81Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8058d agoJan 1View
$66.39eBayNear Mint9259d agoJan 1View
$66.93PWCCNear Mint8162d agoJan 1View
$67.05TCGPlayerNear Mint9665d agoJan 1View
$67.38MercariNear Mint9857d agoJan 1View
$69.28Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9469d agoJan 1View
$69.34eBayNear Mint7371d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$58.59MercariNear Mint54d ago
$65.55eBayNear Mint55d ago
$56.46PWCCNear Mint60d ago
$60.57eBayNear Mint63d ago
$51.44eBayNear Mint64d ago
$51.27PWCCNear Mint67d ago
$54.76PWCCNear Mint69d ago
$61.84PWCCNear Mint73d ago
$58.66Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint76d ago
$57.02TCGPlayerNear Mint77d ago
$57.55PWCCNear Mint77d ago
$56.40eBayNear Mint78d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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