Electabuzz
CGC 9SimulatedElectabuzz · Neo Genesis · Uncommon · 33
Character: Electabuzz
Price History
Opportunity Score
29- Reputable seller+7 pts
- Low active inventory+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Population growth slowing+2 pts
- Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish15Electabuzz (CGC 9) is currently fairly valued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-16.4%). Estimated fair value is $78 against a lowest active listing of $79. Valuation confidence is medium based on 3-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-16.4% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 6.0%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 3996 graded.
3,996 graded · 34% gem · +6.0%/mo
- Raw cost
- $78.51
- All-in cost
- $108+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $77.86
- Expected proceeds
- $20.3230% gem → $23.36 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$87.19
- Breakeven graded value
- $412value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 78.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -5.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 5active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $311mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $293cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $271
- Median
- $306
- Mean
- $306
- Max
- $350
Showing 28 of 28 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 82.83 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 82.6 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 76.35 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.78 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -2.32 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $306 | Mercari | Graded | 56d ago |
| $344 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 59d ago |
| $350 | Mercari | Graded | 60d ago |
| $318 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 62d ago |
| $322 | eBay | Graded | 67d ago |
| $318 | eBay | Graded | 73d ago |
| $296 | PWCC | Graded | 75d ago |
| $290 | Mercari | Graded | 75d ago |
| $332 | PWCC | Graded | 82d ago |
| $294 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 83d ago |
| $305 | Mercari | Graded | 84d ago |
| $306 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 84d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $511 · sales-derived, ungradedView $300 · TCGPlayer
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 SteelixNeo GenesisSimulated
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 QuilavaNeo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
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 HeracrossNeo GenesisBGS 9.5Simulated
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 SeadraNeo GenesisCGC 9Simulated
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 FlaaffyNeo GenesisSimulated
| $161 | $143 | 11.6% | 32.2% | 13 | 52 |