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Radiant Charjabug — Crown Zenith — Radiant Rare

Radiant Charjabug

Simulated

Radiant Charjabug · Crown Zenith · Radiant Rare · 51

Character: Radiant

high confidencebullish6530d 5.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$65.05
Lowest listing $57.7311.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$52.96
Base Case
$65.05
Bull Case
$77.32

Price History

Dec 8Range $45.21 – $88.61Jun 5

Opportunity Score

35
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Price up 5% over 30 days+2 pts
  • Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish65

Radiant Charjabug is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+5.0%). Estimated fair value is $65 against a lowest active listing of $58. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
15
Sales / Month
5.0
Velocity Score
25/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
-2.6%
Confidence
74/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-30.5%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$57.73
All-in cost
$86.73+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$231
Expected proceeds
$60.2730% gem → $69.28 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$26.46
Breakeven graded value
$332value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.2dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
60.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+14.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
6active listings
Recent sold avg
$71.13mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$81.21cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$61.26
Median
$68.15
Mean
$68.89
Max
$79.64

Showing 15 of 16 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps65.5650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices67.0725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection63.3925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.5220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$81.21Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8155d agoJan 1View
$88.08eBayNear Mint6869d agoJan 1View
$88.80eBayNear Mint9370d agoJan 1View
$89.71eBayNear Mint7774d agoJan 1View
$98.67TCGPlayerNear Mint7655d agoJan 1View
$100Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8267d agoJun 10View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$89.01TCGPlayerNear Mint60d ago
$66.04PWCCNear Mint67d ago
$65.77MercariNear Mint69d ago
$64.93TCGPlayerNear Mint70d ago
$62.30PWCCNear Mint72d ago
$61.26eBayNear Mint72d ago
$79.43TCGPlayerNear Mint83d ago
$79.64PWCCNear Mint85d ago
$71.83Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint89d ago
$70.98PWCCNear Mint94d ago
$68.15TCGPlayerNear Mint98d ago
$71.23eBayNear Mint100d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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