PokéAlpha
Back to dashboard

Greninja Ultra Rare

Simulated

Greninja Ultra Rare · Prismatic Evolutions · Ultra Rare · 14/180

Character: Greninja

high confidencebullish10030d 25.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$160
Lowest listing $1487.7% below
Bear Case
$136
Base Case
$160
Bull Case
$187

Price History

Dec 2Range $102$181May 30

Opportunity Score

45
  • 8% below fair value+9 pts
  • Price up 25% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (20 sales/mo)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish100

Greninja Ultra Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+25.4%). Estimated fair value is $160 against a lowest active listing of $148. Valuation confidence is high based on 22-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+25.4% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
22
Sales / Month
19.5
Velocity Score
98/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+6.6%
Confidence
97/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps147.450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices174.4425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection163.9225%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.3120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$118TCGPlayerNear Mint692d agoJan 1View
$123TCGPlayerNear Mint924d agoJan 1View
$126eBayNear Mint8917d agoJan 1View
$127MercariNear Mint6815d agoJan 1View
$128PWCCNear Mint8212d agoJan 1View
$131Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8414d agoMay 31View
$132TCGPlayerNear Mint7413d agoJan 1View
$139TCGPlayerNear Mint6912d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$147Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9d ago
$122TCGPlayerNear Mint16d ago
$143Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint21d ago
$142Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint30d ago
$147TCGPlayerNear Mint30d ago
$142PWCCNear Mint35d ago
$142MercariNear Mint36d ago
$155MercariNear Mint37d ago
$143eBayNear Mint39d ago
$146MercariNear Mint43d ago
$132MercariNear Mint44d ago
$127MercariNear Mint58d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Umbreon ex (Special Illustration)Prismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$551$47413.9%4.5%1942
Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art)Prismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
$425$4220.8%2.5%230
Rayquaza Ultra RarePrismatic EvolutionsBGS 9Simulated
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Population growth slowing+7 pts
$436$3939.8%9.0%1344
Pikachu VMAX (Alt Art)Prismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$484$43210.8%8.6%1638
Mewtwo ex (Illustration Rare)Prismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
$272$22816.2%13.8%1244
Sylveon V (Full Art)Prismatic EvolutionsSimulated
  • 17% below fair value+19 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$261$21816.6%13.4%1244