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Dewgong — Base Set — Uncommon

Dewgong

CGC 9.5Simulated

Dewgong · Base Set · Uncommon · 25

Character: Dewgong

high confidencebearish2530d ▼9.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$75.16
Lowest listing $68.249.2% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$64.98
Base Case
$75.16
Bull Case
$85.25

Price History

Dec 8Range $179 – $302Jun 5

Opportunity Score

32
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish25

Dewgong (CGC 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-9.6%). Estimated fair value is $75 against a lowest active listing of $68. Valuation confidence is high based on 11-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-9.6% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and rising graded population (6.9%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
11
Sales / Month
6.0
Velocity Score
30/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
-1.2%
Total Graded
3,149
Gem Mint
702
Population Growth
+6.9%
Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-79.8%
Grading not economical
slowing population

Population growth slowing to -0.8%/mo — supply tightening across 6164 graded.

6,164 graded · 44% gem · -0.8%/mo

Raw cost
$68.24
All-in cost
$97.24+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$75.16
Expected proceeds
$19.6230% gem → $22.55 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$77.62
Breakeven graded value
$373value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
87.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-6.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
2active listings
Recent sold avg
$198mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$186cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$182
Median
$201
Mean
$201
Max
$223

Showing 22 of 23 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps78.5150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices77.3825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection77.7125%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.4550%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.2420%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$186TCGPlayerGraded7075d agoJan 1View
$219Facebook MarketplaceGraded6858d agoJun 8View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$182Facebook MarketplaceGraded57d ago
$211Facebook MarketplaceGraded59d ago
$203eBayGraded61d ago
$191MercariGraded63d ago
$199MercariGraded65d ago
$191eBayGraded65d ago
$207eBayGraded66d ago
$201TCGPlayerGraded70d ago
$200TCGPlayerGraded71d ago
$189MercariGraded72d ago
$205TCGPlayerGraded75d ago
$199MercariGraded83d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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