Lucario Ultra Rare
SimulatedLucario Ultra Rare · Neo Genesis · Ultra Rare · 60/111
Character: Lucario
Price History
Opportunity Score
43- 7% below fair value+8 pts
- Price up 19% over 30 days+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (20 sales/mo)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+4 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish100Lucario Ultra Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+18.9%). Estimated fair value is $420 against a lowest active listing of $391. Valuation confidence is high based on 9-plus recent comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+18.9% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 394.16 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 446.63 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 411.33 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.02 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $376 | PWCC | Near Mint | 64 | 3d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $387 | PWCC | Near Mint | 67 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $408 | Mercari | Near Mint | 92 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $410 | PWCC | Near Mint | 62 | 3d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $419 | PWCC | Near Mint | 96 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $424 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 98 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $450 | eBay | Near Mint | 97 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $470 | PWCC | Near Mint | 73 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $485 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 84 | 19d ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $486 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 91 | 9d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $488 | eBay | Near Mint | 95 | 3d ago | Jun 4 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $450 | Mercari | Near Mint | 3d ago |
| $474 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 4d ago |
| $510 | PWCC | Near Mint | 5d ago |
| $465 | eBay | Near Mint | 8d ago |
| $433 | PWCC | Near Mint | 12d ago |
| $446 | eBay | Near Mint | 18d ago |
| $482 | eBay | Near Mint | 20d ago |
| $480 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 20d ago |
| $452 | eBay | Near Mint | 25d ago |
| $457 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 27d ago |
| $525 | Mercari | Near Mint | 32d ago |
| $509 | Mercari | Near Mint | 35d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
| $1,255 | $987 | 21.3% | 33.1% | 18 | 51 |
Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art)Neo GenesisSimulated
| $1,469 | $1,435 | 2.3% | 17.9% | 5 | 35 |
Mew ex (Illustration Rare)Neo GenesisSimulated
| $1,055 | $840 | 20.4% | 17.0% | 19 | 58 |
Rayquaza PromoNeo GenesisSimulated
| $552 | $474 | 14.2% | 11.5% | 21 | 35 |
Blastoise ex (Illustration Rare)Neo GenesisSimulated
| $475 | $454 | 4.3% | 19.8% | 8 | 36 |
Gardevoir PromoNeo GenesisSimulated
| $279 | $264 | 5.6% | 10.2% | 20 | 30 |