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Luxray — Crown Zenith — Rare

Luxray

Simulated

Luxray · Crown Zenith · Rare · 43

Character: Luxray

high confidencebullish9530d 40.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$33.55
Lowest listing $30.369.5% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$27.06
Base Case
$33.55
Bull Case
$40.27

Price History

Dec 8Range $54.68 – $83.59Jun 5

Opportunity Score

49
  • 10% below fair value+11 pts
  • Price up 41% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish95

Luxray is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+40.6%). Estimated fair value is $34 against a lowest active listing of $30. Valuation confidence is high based on 19-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+40.6% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
19
Sales / Month
13.5
Velocity Score
68/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+14.7%
Confidence
94/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-46.6%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$30.36
All-in cost
$59.36+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$121
Expected proceeds
$31.7030% gem → $36.43 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.66
Breakeven graded value
$227value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
44.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-13.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
23active listings
Recent sold avg
$68.25mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$58.91cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$51.39
Median
$64.48
Mean
$64.83
Max
$76.63

Showing 34 of 34 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps30.3650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices35.3125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection34.3225%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.9420%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$58.91Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7958d agoJan 1View
$59.87MercariNear Mint9368d agoJan 1View
$60.51TCGPlayerNear Mint9857d agoJan 1View
$60.58PWCCNear Mint6364d agoJan 1View
$60.78PWCCNear Mint7863d agoJan 1View
$61.15eBayNear Mint8566d agoJan 1View
$61.44MercariNear Mint9064d agoJan 1View
$62.82MercariNear Mint6061d agoJan 1View
$63.47PWCCNear Mint7368d agoJan 1View
$65.17MercariNear Mint7769d agoJan 1View
$65.17MercariNear Mint9869d agoJan 1View
$65.52Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8563d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$68.83PWCCNear Mint54d ago
$63.77TCGPlayerNear Mint55d ago
$76.63eBayNear Mint60d ago
$71.22TCGPlayerNear Mint60d ago
$67.09PWCCNear Mint61d ago
$69.02eBayNear Mint62d ago
$73.36TCGPlayerNear Mint62d ago
$68.67Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint67d ago
$73.41TCGPlayerNear Mint75d ago
$72.38Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint81d ago
$69.80Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint82d ago
$60.57TCGPlayerNear Mint83d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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