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Pupitar — Prismatic Evolutions — Common

Pupitar

PSA 9Simulated

Pupitar · Prismatic Evolutions · Common · 48

Character: Pupitar

high confidencebullish6230d ▼0.5%
Estimated Fair Value
$80.85
Lowest listing $63.4921.5% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$68.32
Base Case
$80.85
Bull Case
$93.44

Price History

Dec 8Range $61.66 – $88.31Jun 5

Opportunity Score

59
  • 21% below fair value+25 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish62

Pupitar (PSA 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-0.5%). Estimated fair value is $81 against a lowest active listing of $63. Valuation confidence is high based on 14-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
14
Sales / Month
18.0
Velocity Score
90/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-8.6%
Total Graded
1,243
Gem Mint
269
Population Growth
-0.4%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-77.2%
Grading not economical
scarce population

Only 529 graded copies exist (38% gem) — a scarce, thin supply.

529 graded · 38% gem · +4.9%/mo

Raw cost
$63.49
All-in cost
$92.49+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$80.85
Expected proceeds
$21.1030% gem → $24.26 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$71.39
Breakeven graded value
$354value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
4.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
41.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-12.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
13active listings
Recent sold avg
$72.42mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$63.73cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$64.62
Median
$75.10
Mean
$75.81
Max
$86.21

Showing 15 of 15 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps84.6450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices74.6825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection84.4225%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.1950%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.7120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$63.73eBayGraded8758d agoJan 1View
$67.47MercariGraded7073d agoJan 1View
$68.23TCGPlayerGraded8971d agoJun 7View
$69.68Facebook MarketplaceGraded8061d agoJan 1View
$72.45PWCCGraded9962d agoJan 1View
$76.19eBayGraded9055d agoJun 7View
$76.69MercariGraded6868d agoJan 1View
$77.97TCGPlayerGraded6462d agoJun 6View
$78.90MercariGraded8767d agoJan 1View
$79.56PWCCGraded6155d agoJun 7View
$81.50eBayGraded9071d agoJan 1View
$82.73PWCCGraded8460d agoJun 7View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$70.71eBayGraded56d ago
$68.42MercariGraded62d ago
$75.10TCGPlayerGraded63d ago
$71.95Facebook MarketplaceGraded67d ago
$64.62MercariGraded70d ago
$77.73TCGPlayerGraded75d ago
$76.29Facebook MarketplaceGraded83d ago
$72.61Facebook MarketplaceGraded87d ago
$74.35PWCCGraded90d ago
$76.35Facebook MarketplaceGraded95d ago
$81.32PWCCGraded101d ago
$84.14eBayGraded101d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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