Umbreon Holo Rare
BGS 9SimulatedUmbreon Holo Rare · Evolving Skies · Holo Rare · 12/237
Character: Umbreon
Price History
Opportunity Score
47- 20% below fair value+23 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- Population growth slowing+3 pts
- Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish20Umbreon Holo Rare (BGS 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-14.7%). Estimated fair value is $337 against a lowest active listing of $271. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-14.7% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 357.09 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 309.51 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 340.83 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.45 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.33 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $300 | eBay | Graded | 4d ago |
| $299 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 5d ago |
| $274 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 6d ago |
| $302 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 7d ago |
| $272 | PWCC | Graded | 8d ago |
| $265 | PWCC | Graded | 11d ago |
| $267 | eBay | Graded | 13d ago |
| $243 | eBay | Graded | 17d ago |
| $215 | eBay | Graded | 18d ago |
| $214 | Mercari | Graded | 18d ago |
| $234 | PWCC | Graded | 22d ago |
| $263 | eBay | Graded | 25d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard Holo RareEvolving SkiesSimulated
| $226 | $192 | 15.2% | 16.0% | 21 | 55 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)Evolving SkiesBGS 9.5Simulated
| $535 | $510 | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3 | 39 |
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $303 | $254 | 15.9% | 11.6% | 8 | 57 |
MoonbreonEvolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
| $1,541 | $1,369 | 11.2% | 2.4% | 20 | 45 |
Umbreon Holo RareXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $271 | $268 | 1.4% | 23.8% | 2 | 37 |
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $528 | $496 | 6.0% | 12.6% | 21 | 33 |