Starmie BREAK
SimulatedStarmie BREAK · XY Evolutions · Rare BREAK · 32
Character: Starmie
Price History
Opportunity Score
48- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Price up 15% over 30 days+6 pts
- Strong demand (19 sales/mo)+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish97Starmie BREAK is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+14.8%). Estimated fair value is $72 against a lowest active listing of $64. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+14.8% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $64.12
- All-in cost
- $93.12+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $256
- Expected proceeds
- $66.9430% gem → $76.94 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$26.18
- Breakeven graded value
- $357value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 21.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -12.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 19active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $88.39mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $77.53cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $85.80
- Median
- $89.20
- Mean
- $94.98
- Max
- $115
Showing 7 of 7 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 68.99 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 73.79 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 70.04 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.74 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $77.53 | PWCC | Near Mint | 84 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $80.95 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 87 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $83.18 | PWCC | Near Mint | 67 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $86.33 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 77 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $86.61 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 92 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $87.41 | Mercari | Near Mint | 87 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $88.42 | PWCC | Near Mint | 66 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $88.57 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 98 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $90.54 | Mercari | Near Mint | 66 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $94.59 | Mercari | Near Mint | 87 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $95.48 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 79 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $96.69 | Mercari | Near Mint | 73 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $86.96 | eBay | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $88.35 | eBay | Near Mint | 58d ago |
| $85.80 | eBay | Near Mint | 61d ago |
| $91.63 | eBay | Near Mint | 63d ago |
| $89.20 | PWCC | Near Mint | 82d ago |
| $115 | Mercari | Near Mint | 90d ago |
| $108 | PWCC | Near Mint | 103d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CharizardXY EvolutionsBGS 9.5Simulated
| $65,051 | $62,659 | 3.7% | 5.1% | 14 | 24 |
 Mewtwo-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $2,598 | $2,331 | 10.3% | 4.6% | 15 | 45 |
 MewtwoXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $2,328 | $2,077 | 10.8% | 8.7% | 8 | 45 |
Mewtwo-EXXY EvolutionsBGS 9.5Simulated
| $2,607 | $2,327 | 10.7% | 24.8% | 3 | 48 |
 Blastoise-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $1,094 | $877 | 19.9% | 24.2% | 19 | 54 |
Blastoise-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $364 | $333 | 8.5% | 15.5% | 17 | 43 |