Price History
Opportunity Score
46- 16% below fair value+19 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts
- Sales accelerating+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish25Pichu is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-20.9%). Estimated fair value is $114 against a lowest active listing of $96. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-20.9% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $95.69
- All-in cost
- $125+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $383
- Expected proceeds
- $99.9030% gem → $115 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$24.79
- Breakeven graded value
- $478value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 34.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -24.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 19active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $275mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $207cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $221
- Median
- $262
- Mean
- $260
- Max
- $297
Showing 21 of 21 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 116.41 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 109.97 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 107.95 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.19 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $207 | Mercari | Near Mint | 99 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $210 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 81 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $210 | PWCC | Near Mint | 81 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $222 | Mercari | Near Mint | 96 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $223 | eBay | Near Mint | 97 | 71d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $223 | eBay | Near Mint | 92 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $225 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 95 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $233 | eBay | Near Mint | 88 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $238 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 89 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $239 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 70 | 71d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $243 | eBay | Near Mint | 63 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $245 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 93 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $249 | eBay | Near Mint | 56d ago |
| $262 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 56d ago |
| $247 | Mercari | Near Mint | 68d ago |
| $291 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 70d ago |
| $285 | PWCC | Near Mint | 70d ago |
| $281 | PWCC | Near Mint | 71d ago |
| $276 | Mercari | Near Mint | 80d ago |
| $297 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 84d ago |
| $294 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 85d ago |
| $264 | eBay | Near Mint | 88d ago |
| $273 | PWCC | Near Mint | 91d ago |
| $231 | PWCC | Near Mint | 98d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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