Nidorino
PSA 9.5SimulatedNidorino · XY Evolutions · Uncommon · 44
Character: Nidorino
Price History
Opportunity Score
46- 14% below fair value+16 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+6 pts
- Low active inventory+3 pts
- Population growth slowing+2 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral50Nidorino (PSA 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-4.0%). Estimated fair value is $80 against a lowest active listing of $69. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 0.5%/mo — supply tightening across 8129 graded.
8,129 graded · 31% gem · +0.5%/mo
- Raw cost
- $69.20
- All-in cost
- $98.20+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $80.07
- Expected proceeds
- $20.9030% gem → $24.02 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$77.30
- Breakeven graded value
- $376value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 33.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -1.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 12active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $138mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $137cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $119
- Median
- $132
- Mean
- $132
- Max
- $145
Showing 8 of 9 sales · 1 outlier trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 81.29 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 79.65 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 85.48 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.01 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -0.27 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $137 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 60 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $140 | Mercari | Graded | 83 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $143 | eBay | Graded | 66 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $146 | Mercari | Graded | 79 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $146 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 73 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $149 | Mercari | Graded | 74 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $156 | eBay | Graded | 97 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $160 | Mercari | Graded | 84 | 60d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $161 | Mercari | Graded | 68 | 64d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $162 | eBay | Graded | 96 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $163 | Mercari | Graded | 65 | 71d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $166 | Mercari | Graded | 87 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | eBay | Graded | 68d ago |
| $134 | PWCC | Graded | 71d ago |
| $140 | Mercari | Graded | 74d ago |
| $119 | Mercari | Graded | 84d ago |
| $130 | Mercari | Graded | 86d ago |
| $145 | eBay | Graded | 86d ago |
| $137 | eBay | Graded | 93d ago |
| $124 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 108d ago |
| $128 | PWCC | Graded | 108d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Mewtwo-EXXY EvolutionsBGS 9.5Simulated
| $3,246 | $2,970 | 8.5% | 19.1% | 20 | 46 |
 Blastoise-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $1,174 | $1,047 | 10.8% | 6.4% | 6 | 42 |
Blastoise-EXXY EvolutionsSimulated
| $288 | $266 | 7.8% | 16.0% | 14 | 31 |