Lucario ex (Special Illustration)
CGC 10SimulatedLucario ex (Special Illustration) · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Special Illustration Rare · 1/207
Character: Lucario
Price History
Opportunity Score
55- 10% below fair value+11 pts
- Population growth slowing+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Sales accelerating+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Price up 12% over 30 days+5 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish91Lucario ex (Special Illustration) (CGC 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+12.3%). Estimated fair value is $391 against a lowest active listing of $353. Valuation confidence is high based on 11-plus recent comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+12.3% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 364.14 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 411.42 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 374.7 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | 0.09 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 3.19 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $423 | eBay | Graded | 90 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $425 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 81 | 12d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $428 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 68 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $448 | Mercari | Graded | 86 | 14d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $448 | PWCC | Graded | 98 | 6d ago | Jun 1 | View |
| $457 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 66 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $461 | PWCC | Graded | 89 | 10d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $462 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 92 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $464 | PWCC | Graded | 89 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $479 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 96 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $486 | PWCC | Graded | 91 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $493 | eBay | Graded | 73 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $501 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 10d ago |
| $434 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 10d ago |
| $466 | PWCC | Graded | 12d ago |
| $410 | eBay | Graded | 15d ago |
| $435 | Mercari | Graded | 17d ago |
| $414 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 20d ago |
| $428 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 34d ago |
| $392 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 38d ago |
| $430 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 38d ago |
| $471 | eBay | Graded | 41d ago |
| $460 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 46d ago |
| $424 | Mercari | Graded | 52d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard Secret RareScarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $827 | $754 | 8.8% | 31.3% | 20 | 61 |
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $326 | $291 | 10.8% | 9.6% | 10 | 47 |
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
| $495 | $425 | 14.2% | 8.8% | 2 | 58 |
Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare)Scarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $296 | $256 | 13.7% | 16.0% | 21 | 55 |
Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Simulated
| $583 | $508 | 13.0% | 12.9% | 9 | 44 |
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $300 | $245 | 18.3% | 12.9% | 13 | 51 |