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Lugia Holo Rare

Simulated

Lugia Holo Rare · Base Set · Holo Rare · 78/102

Character: Lugia

high confidencebullish6430d 2.5%
Estimated Fair Value
$441
Lowest listing $37514.9% below
Bear Case
$377
Base Case
$441
Bull Case
$504

Price History

Dec 2Range $244 – $459May 30

Opportunity Score

48
  • 15% below fair value+17 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (11 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish64

Lugia Holo Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+2.5%). Estimated fair value is $441 against a lowest active listing of $375. Valuation confidence is high based on 9-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
9
Sales / Month
11.0
Velocity Score
55/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+17.1%
Confidence
95/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps425.9250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices426.0125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection428.0725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.4120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$250Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9921d agoJan 1View
$250eBayNear Mint885d agoJan 1View
$261PWCCNear Mint8523h agoJan 1View
$304Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7613d agoJan 1View
$309Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6520d agoJun 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$274PWCCNear Mint6d ago
$335MercariNear Mint13d ago
$359PWCCNear Mint13d ago
$324TCGPlayerNear Mint13d ago
$367TCGPlayerNear Mint13d ago
$357TCGPlayerNear Mint14d ago
$355TCGPlayerNear Mint16d ago
$378PWCCNear Mint22d ago
$378TCGPlayerNear Mint23d ago
$415Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint25d ago
$367TCGPlayerNear Mint30d ago
$419eBayNear Mint49d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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