Quilava
SimulatedQuilava · Neo Genesis · Uncommon · 46
Character: Quilava
Price History
Opportunity Score
44- 18% below fair value+21 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish27Quilava is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-27.3%). Estimated fair value is $105 against a lowest active listing of $87. Valuation confidence is high based on 16-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-27.3% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $86.64
- All-in cost
- $116+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $347
- Expected proceeds
- $90.4530% gem → $104 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$25.19
- Breakeven graded value
- $443value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
Not enough recent sales to model liquidity for this asset. At least three in-window sales are needed for a reliable read.
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $204
- Median
- $230
- Mean
- $224
- Max
- $252
Showing 5 of 6 sales · 1 outlier trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 113.74 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 97.53 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 96.44 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.12 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $153 | eBay | Near Mint | 92 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $156 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 87 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $159 | eBay | Near Mint | 85 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $171 | PWCC | Near Mint | 96 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $174 | Mercari | Near Mint | 76 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $178 | Mercari | Near Mint | 62 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $185 | eBay | Near Mint | 87 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $188 | PWCC | Near Mint | 63 | 61d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $189 | PWCC | Near Mint | 81 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $192 | eBay | Near Mint | 68 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $146 | Mercari | Near Mint | 68d ago |
| $230 | eBay | Near Mint | 88d ago |
| $204 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 96d ago |
| $204 | PWCC | Near Mint | 107d ago |
| $252 | eBay | Near Mint | 112d ago |
| $231 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 113d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $511 · sales-derived, ungradedView $300 · TCGPlayer
| $1,634 | $1,056 | 35.4% | 5.6% | 1 | 68 |
 SteelixNeo GenesisSimulated
| $238 | $219 | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4 | 44 |
 QuilavaNeo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
| $307 | $270 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 12 | 45 |
 HeracrossNeo GenesisBGS 9.5Simulated
| $212 | $193 | 8.8% | 9.4% | 21 | 39 |
 SeadraNeo GenesisCGC 9Simulated
| $233 | $200 | 14.3% | 25.0% | 23 | 42 |
 FlaaffyNeo GenesisSimulated
| $161 | $143 | 11.6% | 32.2% | 13 | 52 |