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Poliwrath — Base Set — Rare Holo

Poliwrath

PSA 9.5Simulated

Poliwrath · Base Set · Rare Holo · 13

Character: Poliwrath

high confidencebullish7230d ▲6.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$86.88
Lowest listing $85.821.2% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$74.63
Base Case
$86.88
Bull Case
$99.16

Price History

Dec 8Range $82.07 – $339Jun 5

Opportunity Score

30
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Population growth slowing+4 pts
  • Price up 6% over 30 days+3 pts
  • 1% below fair value+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish72

Poliwrath (PSA 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+6.1%). Estimated fair value is $87 against a lowest active listing of $86. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+6.1% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
16.0
Velocity Score
80/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-5.3%
Total Graded
1,624
Gem Mint
757
Population Growth
+2.7%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-80.3%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 1.7%/mo — steady supply across 3127 graded.

3,127 graded · 30% gem · +1.7%/mo

Raw cost
$85.82
All-in cost
$115+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$86.88
Expected proceeds
$22.6830% gem → $26.06 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$92.14
Breakeven graded value
$440value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.3dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
55.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-6.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
15active listings
Recent sold avg
$278mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$261cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$203
Median
$255
Mean
$251
Max
$310

Showing 36 of 39 sales · 3 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps84.7150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices100.0325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection86.5725%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.3350%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.0720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$261Facebook MarketplaceGraded7260d agoJun 9View
$269TCGPlayerGraded8458d agoJan 1View
$276Facebook MarketplaceGraded6268d agoJun 6View
$277TCGPlayerGraded6670d agoJan 1View
$281TCGPlayerGraded7472d agoJan 1View
$282TCGPlayerGraded8458d agoJan 1View
$285TCGPlayerGraded9561d agoJan 1View
$287eBayGraded9258d agoJun 8View
$290Facebook MarketplaceGraded9068d agoJan 1View
$293eBayGraded6466d agoJan 1View
$300MercariGraded9055d agoJun 7View
$306MercariGraded10061d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$268eBayGraded60d ago
$266eBayGraded60d ago
$234MercariGraded62d ago
$256eBayGraded62d ago
$227eBayGraded64d ago
$260Facebook MarketplaceGraded68d ago
$282eBayGraded69d ago
$258PWCCGraded70d ago
$266TCGPlayerGraded74d ago
$288TCGPlayerGraded74d ago
$289MercariGraded76d ago
$259MercariGraded77d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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