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Magmar — Base Set — Uncommon

Magmar

BGS 9Simulated

Magmar · Base Set · Uncommon · 36

Character: Magmar

high confidencebullish9530d ▲45.5%
Estimated Fair Value
$191
Lowest listing $1834.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$157
Base Case
$191
Bull Case
$229

Price History

Dec 8Range $248 – $412Jun 5

Opportunity Score

52
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Price up 46% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • 4% below fair value+5 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish95

Magmar (BGS 9) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+45.5%). Estimated fair value is $191 against a lowest active listing of $183. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+45.5% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
15
Sales / Month
13.5
Velocity Score
68/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+19.1%
Total Graded
515
Gem Mint
227
Population Growth
-0.4%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-76.5%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 2.9%/mo — steady supply across 3640 graded.

3,640 graded · 30% gem · +2.9%/mo

Raw cost
$183
All-in cost
$212+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$191
Expected proceeds
$49.8930% gem → $57.34 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$162.00
Breakeven graded value
$812value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
4.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
43.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-3.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
8active listings
Recent sold avg
$282mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$271cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$265
Median
$284
Mean
$292
Max
$341

Showing 12 of 12 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps155.9950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices216.9225%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection206.2425%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.1850%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.8120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$271PWCCGraded8466d agoJan 1View
$274TCGPlayerGraded6671d agoJan 1View
$277PWCCGraded7565d agoJan 1View
$302Facebook MarketplaceGraded7273d agoJan 1View
$306MercariGraded7571d agoJun 8View
$324Facebook MarketplaceGraded7660d agoJun 10View
$330MercariGraded9859d agoJan 1View
$340eBayGraded7957d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$276eBayGraded59d ago
$290Facebook MarketplaceGraded66d ago
$265eBayGraded68d ago
$274MercariGraded73d ago
$273Facebook MarketplaceGraded74d ago
$311Facebook MarketplaceGraded80d ago
$306Facebook MarketplaceGraded98d ago
$283Facebook MarketplaceGraded102d ago
$286TCGPlayerGraded103d ago
$282Facebook MarketplaceGraded106d ago
$313PWCCGraded107d ago
$341MercariGraded110d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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