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Leafeon ex — Prismatic Evolutions — Double Rare

Leafeon ex

Simulated

Leafeon ex · Prismatic Evolutions · Double Rare · 6

Character: Leafeon

medium confidencebullish8830d 21.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$15.29
Lowest listing $19.11
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$12.50
Base Case
$15.29
Bull Case
$18.17

Price History

Dec 8Range $46.45 – $104Jun 5

Opportunity Score

33
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Price up 22% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish88

Leafeon ex is currently trading above fair value, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+21.6%). Estimated fair value is $15 against a lowest active listing of $19. Valuation confidence is medium based on 2-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+21.6% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
4.5
Velocity Score
23/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
-3.2%
Confidence
54/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-58.5%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$19.11
All-in cost
$48.11+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$76.44
Expected proceeds
$19.9530% gem → $22.93 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.16
Breakeven graded value
$184value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
4.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
67.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-16.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
5active listings
Recent sold avg
$58.05mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$48.32cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$52.97
Median
$63.46
Mean
$64.81
Max
$81.42

Showing 16 of 16 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps13.8950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices19.3425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection14.4225%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.6320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$48.32MercariNear Mint8365d agoJun 9View
$50.30TCGPlayerNear Mint6455d agoJun 7View
$55.81MercariNear Mint9472d agoJan 1View
$56.97Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8467d agoJun 6View
$58.46eBayNear Mint7257d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$55.57TCGPlayerNear Mint56d ago
$55.22eBayNear Mint57d ago
$55.48eBayNear Mint64d ago
$63.87eBayNear Mint70d ago
$60.28TCGPlayerNear Mint71d ago
$54.15PWCCNear Mint76d ago
$55.08TCGPlayerNear Mint76d ago
$52.97PWCCNear Mint81d ago
$64.01Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint86d ago
$63.84Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint88d ago
$63.08eBayNear Mint98d ago
$72.67MercariNear Mint104d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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