Marshtomp
CGC 9.5SimulatedMarshtomp · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Uncommon · 41
Character: Marshtomp
Price History
Opportunity Score
38- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- 4% below fair value+5 pts
- Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
- Low active inventory+3 pts
- Sales accelerating+3 pts
- Population growth slowing+3 pts
- Price up 7% over 30 days+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish70Marshtomp (CGC 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+6.6%). Estimated fair value is $33 against a lowest active listing of $31. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+6.6% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to -0.4%/mo — supply tightening across 7206 graded.
7,206 graded · 54% gem · -0.4%/mo
- Raw cost
- $31.46
- All-in cost
- $60.46+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $32.77
- Expected proceeds
- $8.5530% gem → $9.83 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$51.91
- Breakeven graded value
- $232value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.3dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 43.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -14.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 8active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $138mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $118cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $128
- Median
- $137
- Mean
- $138
- Max
- $151
Showing 9 of 10 sales · 1 outlier trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 32.06 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 33.62 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 33.68 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.63 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.39 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $118 | PWCC | Graded | 96 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $122 | eBay | Graded | 72 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $132 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 93 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $137 | eBay | Graded | 62 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $146 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 86 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $149 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 75 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $152 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 79 | 55d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $152 | PWCC | Graded | 98 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $132 | PWCC | Graded | 63d ago |
| $137 | PWCC | Graded | 66d ago |
| $128 | PWCC | Graded | 72d ago |
| $151 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 77d ago |
| $144 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 80d ago |
| $133 | eBay | Graded | 83d ago |
| $109 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 92d ago |
| $143 | PWCC | Graded | 101d ago |
| $137 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 103d ago |
| $135 | Mercari | Graded | 109d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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