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Mareep — Evolving Skies — Common

Mareep

Simulated

Mareep · Evolving Skies · Common · 54

Character: Mareep

high confidencebearish2130d 15.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$22.90
Lowest listing $18.2120.5% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$19.70
Base Case
$22.90
Bull Case
$25.93

Price History

Dec 8Range $45.50 – $73.90Jun 5

Opportunity Score

61
  • 20% below fair value+24 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • Low active inventory+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish21

Mareep is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-15.4%). Estimated fair value is $23 against a lowest active listing of $18. Valuation confidence is high based on 3-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-15.4% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
3
Sales / Month
6.0
Velocity Score
30/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+25.5%
Confidence
72/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-59.7%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$18.21
All-in cost
$47.21+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$72.84
Expected proceeds
$19.0130% gem → $21.85 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.20
Breakeven graded value
$181value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.3dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
72.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-2.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
8active listings
Recent sold avg
$53.42mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$52.33cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$44.34
Median
$54.98
Mean
$55.97
Max
$69.95

Showing 31 of 31 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps22.7550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices21.325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection20.3425%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.1120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$52.33eBayNear Mint8473d agoJan 1View
$54.21Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7261d agoJun 10View
$59.69MercariNear Mint9857d agoJan 1View
$63.18eBayNear Mint9375d agoJan 1View
$65.42PWCCNear Mint6864d agoJun 9View
$67.00TCGPlayerNear Mint7274d agoJan 1View
$67.03Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7274d agoJan 1View
$68.61PWCCNear Mint6774d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$55.04eBayNear Mint56d ago
$56.83TCGPlayerNear Mint56d ago
$58.13PWCCNear Mint61d ago
$53.59Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint63d ago
$46.69PWCCNear Mint65d ago
$47.01eBayNear Mint66d ago
$50.60Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint66d ago
$48.58TCGPlayerNear Mint67d ago
$44.34TCGPlayerNear Mint67d ago
$53.62MercariNear Mint69d ago
$54.41Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint71d ago
$53.52TCGPlayerNear Mint71d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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