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Arbok — Hidden Fates — Rare

Arbok

BGS 9Simulated

Arbok · Hidden Fates · Rare · 27

Character: Arbok

high confidencebearish2330d ▼24.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$97.98
Lowest listing $85.2313.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$79.93
Base Case
$97.98
Bull Case
$115

Price History

Dec 8Range $60.85 – $108Jun 5

Opportunity Score

57
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Low active inventory+5 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish23

Arbok (BGS 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-24.6%). Estimated fair value is $98 against a lowest active listing of $85. Valuation confidence is high based on 5-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-24.6% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
5
Sales / Month
10.5
Velocity Score
53/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+21.9%
Total Graded
4,294
Gem Mint
1,454
Population Growth
-1.0%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-77.6%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 6.0%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 1239 graded.

1,239 graded · 49% gem · +6.0%/mo

Raw cost
$85.23
All-in cost
$114+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$97.98
Expected proceeds
$25.5730% gem → $29.39 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$88.66
Breakeven graded value
$438value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.3dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
36.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-9.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
23active listings
Recent sold avg
$86.79mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$78.33cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$58.77
Median
$80.37
Mean
$79.99
Max
$103

Showing 22 of 22 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps99.0450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices93.2525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection82.2925%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.550%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.3820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$78.33MercariGraded7056d agoJan 1View
$79.46TCGPlayerGraded7465d agoJan 1View
$79.90TCGPlayerGraded7964d agoJan 1View
$80.15eBayGraded9166d agoJan 1View
$81.15TCGPlayerGraded7967d agoJan 1View
$81.27eBayGraded7362d agoJan 1View
$82.01Facebook MarketplaceGraded7668d agoJan 1View
$82.56TCGPlayerGraded8863d agoJan 1View
$82.74PWCCGraded8471d agoJan 1View
$84.04Facebook MarketplaceGraded7265d agoJan 1View
$84.22TCGPlayerGraded8169d agoJan 1View
$87.14Facebook MarketplaceGraded8673d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$82.98eBayGraded56d ago
$89.17eBayGraded58d ago
$90.49eBayGraded62d ago
$82.98Facebook MarketplaceGraded65d ago
$89.64MercariGraded65d ago
$78.77Facebook MarketplaceGraded71d ago
$80.21Facebook MarketplaceGraded71d ago
$86.32PWCCGraded73d ago
$103MercariGraded75d ago
$103eBayGraded77d ago
$82.62TCGPlayerGraded83d ago
$85.79eBayGraded83d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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