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Butterfree — Hidden Fates — Rare

Butterfree

Simulated

Butterfree · Hidden Fates · Rare · 3

Character: Butterfree

medium confidencebullish6330d 4.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$79.27
Lowest listing $75.434.8% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$68.02
Base Case
$79.27
Bull Case
$90.63

Price History

Dec 8Range $41.91 – $72.92Jun 5

Opportunity Score

25
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • 5% below fair value+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Price up 5% over 30 days+2 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish63

Butterfree is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+4.8%). Estimated fair value is $79 against a lowest active listing of $75. Valuation confidence is medium based on 16-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
16
Sales / Month
3.5
Velocity Score
18/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
-6.9%
Confidence
65/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-24.6%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$75.43
All-in cost
$104+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$302
Expected proceeds
$78.7530% gem → $90.52 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$25.68
Breakeven graded value
$400value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
33.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-23.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
14active listings
Recent sold avg
$54.94mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$42.17cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$50.48
Median
$55.04
Mean
$55.45
Max
$62.65

Showing 11 of 11 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps78.4850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices85.6125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection78.9425%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.3820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$42.17Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8865d agoJan 1View
$42.24MercariNear Mint8968d agoJan 1View
$43.06Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9962d agoJan 1View
$43.23PWCCNear Mint7474d agoJan 1View
$43.65TCGPlayerNear Mint7960d agoJan 1View
$44.99PWCCNear Mint8665d agoJan 1View
$45.94MercariNear Mint10063d agoJan 1View
$46.20MercariNear Mint7264d agoJan 1View
$47.36PWCCNear Mint9966d agoJan 1View
$48.16eBayNear Mint8373d agoJun 8View
$50.04Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7060d agoJan 1View
$51.50PWCCNear Mint8267d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$55.04eBayNear Mint63d ago
$62.65PWCCNear Mint65d ago
$55.33eBayNear Mint66d ago
$56.81eBayNear Mint67d ago
$51.97eBayNear Mint67d ago
$50.48TCGPlayerNear Mint87d ago
$52.30Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint88d ago
$57.76Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint92d ago
$52.39MercariNear Mint93d ago
$60.49TCGPlayerNear Mint110d ago
$54.77MercariNear Mint113d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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