Price History
Opportunity Score
34- Low active inventory+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- Strong demand (17 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Population growth slowing+3 pts
- 2% below fair value+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish64Articuno (CGC 10) is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+2.4%). Estimated fair value is $488 against a lowest active listing of $480. Valuation confidence is high based on 3-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 0.3%/mo — supply tightening across 8136 graded.
8,136 graded · 55% gem · +0.3%/mo
- Raw cost
- $480
- All-in cost
- $509+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $488
- Expected proceeds
- $12730% gem → $146 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$381.10
- Breakeven graded value
- $1,948value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.8dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 35.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -13.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 22active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $611mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $526cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $565
- Median
- $621
- Mean
- $632
- Max
- $744
Showing 17 of 18 sales · 1 outlier trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 474.85 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 556.48 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 484.98 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.7 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -0.24 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $526 | Mercari | Graded | 65 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $527 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 96 | 57d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $529 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 62 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $542 | PWCC | Graded | 66 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $572 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 65 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $586 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 82 | 73d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $597 | eBay | Graded | 81 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $598 | PWCC | Graded | 78 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $601 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 91 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $602 | Mercari | Graded | 74 | 65d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $607 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 73 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $609 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 84 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $600 | PWCC | Graded | 56d ago |
| $629 | PWCC | Graded | 57d ago |
| $648 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 59d ago |
| $587 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 61d ago |
| $616 | eBay | Graded | 72d ago |
| $602 | eBay | Graded | 73d ago |
| $566 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 78d ago |
| $565 | PWCC | Graded | 81d ago |
| $583 | eBay | Graded | 81d ago |
| $621 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 81d ago |
| $670 | eBay | Graded | 84d ago |
| $643 | eBay | Graded | 86d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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