Price History
Opportunity Score
47- 21% below fair value+25 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (9 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish22Gengar is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-20.2%). Estimated fair value is $10952 against a lowest active listing of $8626. Valuation confidence is high based on 13-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-20.2% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $8,626
- All-in cost
- $8,655+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $34,502
- Expected proceeds
- $9,00530% gem → $10,351 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- $351
- Breakeven graded value
- $33,159value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.4dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 30.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -18.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 16active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $490mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $398cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $482
- Median
- $526
- Mean
- $532
- Max
- $636
Showing 8 of 10 sales · 2 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 11501.91 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 9856.77 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 10846.8 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.23 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $398 | Mercari | Near Mint | 82 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $399 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 67 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $401 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 61 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $414 | PWCC | Near Mint | 82 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $419 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 84 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $432 | eBay | Near Mint | 86 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $457 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 80 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $468 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 96 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $468 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 86 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $470 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 78 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $486 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 68 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $507 | eBay | Near Mint | 67 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $361 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 63d ago |
| $482 | PWCC | Near Mint | 76d ago |
| $483 | Mercari | Near Mint | 77d ago |
| $534 | eBay | Near Mint | 80d ago |
| $527 | PWCC | Near Mint | 80d ago |
| $525 | eBay | Near Mint | 82d ago |
| $518 | Mercari | Near Mint | 83d ago |
| $712 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 105d ago |
| $636 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 106d ago |
| $555 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 113d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GengarFossilPSA 9.5Simulated
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GengarFossilSimulated
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 DragoniteFossilSimulated
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 DragoniteFossilBGS 9.5Simulated
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 AerodactylFossilSimulated
| $324 | $293 | 9.6% | 9.2% | 11 | 33 |