Price History
Opportunity Score
29- Price up 42% over 30 days+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish87Dragonite (BGS 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+41.6%). Estimated fair value is $1008 against a lowest active listing of $1015. Valuation confidence is high based on 14-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+41.6% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 1.4%/mo — supply tightening across 1129 graded.
1,129 graded · 50% gem · +1.4%/mo
- Raw cost
- $1,015
- All-in cost
- $1,044+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $1,008
- Expected proceeds
- $26330% gem → $302 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$781.20
- Breakeven graded value
- $4,001value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 87.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +3.8%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 2active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $503mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $522cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $422
- Median
- $487
- Mean
- $498
- Max
- $609
Showing 20 of 20 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 968.81 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 1186.82 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 1091.48 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.38 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -2.06 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $551 | eBay | Graded | 55d ago |
| $572 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 56d ago |
| $559 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 59d ago |
| $609 | Mercari | Graded | 59d ago |
| $528 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 62d ago |
| $488 | eBay | Graded | 62d ago |
| $474 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 70d ago |
| $453 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 71d ago |
| $444 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 71d ago |
| $441 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 74d ago |
| $422 | PWCC | Graded | 81d ago |
| $439 | PWCC | Graded | 83d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GengarFossilPSA 9.5Simulated
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 GengarFossilSimulated
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GengarFossilSimulated
| $1,661 | $1,371 | 17.4% | 13.3% | 17 | 35 |
 DragoniteFossilSimulated
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 | $282 | $236 | 16.4% | 3.1% | 6 | 52 |
 AerodactylFossilSimulated
| $324 | $293 | 9.6% | 9.2% | 11 | 33 |