Price History
Opportunity Score
62- 19% below fair value+22 pts
- Sales accelerating+11 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Population growth slowing+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish62Gengar (PSA 9.5) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+1.1%). Estimated fair value is $20593 against a lowest active listing of $16748. Valuation confidence is high based on 11-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 5.8%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 2892 graded.
2,892 graded · 36% gem · +5.8%/mo
- Raw cost
- $16,748
- All-in cost
- $16,777+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $20,593
- Expected proceeds
- $5,37530% gem → $6,178 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$11,402.36
- Breakeven graded value
- $64,280value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.3dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 44.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -16.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 10active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $716mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $601cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $670
- Median
- $775
- Mean
- $754
- Max
- $826
Showing 19 of 19 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 19870.71 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 19862.71 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 19709.63 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.48 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 5.41 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $601 | eBay | Graded | 67 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $611 | Mercari | Graded | 94 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $661 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 69 | 75d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $662 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 61 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $664 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 81 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $699 | Mercari | Graded | 88 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $724 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 61 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $743 | PWCC | Graded | 86 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $755 | PWCC | Graded | 65 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $776 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 90 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $732 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 58d ago |
| $690 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 60d ago |
| $685 | PWCC | Graded | 62d ago |
| $742 | eBay | Graded | 66d ago |
| $670 | PWCC | Graded | 72d ago |
| $784 | eBay | Graded | 75d ago |
| $673 | PWCC | Graded | 84d ago |
| $755 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 84d ago |
| $798 | Mercari | Graded | 94d ago |
| $826 | PWCC | Graded | 96d ago |
| $711 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 97d ago |
| $787 | PWCC | Graded | 98d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GengarFossilSimulated
| $11,131 | $9,246 | 16.9% | 16.6% | 10 | 42 |
 GengarFossilSimulated
| $1,564 | $1,394 | 10.9% | 6.3% | 9 | 35 |
 DragoniteFossilSimulated
| $1,495 | $1,249 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 9 | 47 |
 DragoniteFossilBGS 9.5Simulated
| $1,104 | $980 | 11.2% | 34.7% | 18 | 56 |
 KrabbyFossilSimulated
| $266 | $271 | -1.7% | 9.3% | 15 | 21 |
 AerodactylFossilSimulated
| $324 | $297 | 8.5% | 12.6% | 23 | 35 |