Lucario ex (Illustration Rare)
SimulatedLucario ex (Illustration Rare) · Hidden Fates · Illustration Rare · 108/163
Character: Lucario
Price History
Opportunity Score
43- 17% below fair value+20 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (11 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish23Lucario ex (Illustration Rare) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-28.3%). Estimated fair value is $125 against a lowest active listing of $104. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-28.3% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 143.23 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 119.82 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 101.11 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -1.56 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $173 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 63 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $176 | Mercari | Near Mint | 65 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $179 | eBay | Near Mint | 79 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $185 | Mercari | Near Mint | 72 | 11d ago | May 31 | View |
| $188 | eBay | Near Mint | 90 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $190 | PWCC | Near Mint | 82 | 20d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $196 | eBay | Near Mint | 64 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $197 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 99 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $201 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 97 | 1d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $201 | eBay | Near Mint | 83 | 13d ago | May 31 | View |
| $202 | Mercari | Near Mint | 94 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $205 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 83 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $182 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | just now |
| $181 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 10h ago |
| $177 | Mercari | Near Mint | 12h ago |
| $195 | PWCC | Near Mint | 16h ago |
| $194 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 2d ago |
| $203 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 2d ago |
| $198 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $191 | eBay | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $176 | Mercari | Near Mint | 11d ago |
| $193 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 12d ago |
| $182 | PWCC | Near Mint | 13d ago |
| $200 | eBay | Near Mint | 15d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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