Lucario Ultra Rare
SimulatedLucario Ultra Rare · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Ultra Rare · 15/109
Character: Lucario
Price History
Opportunity Score
38- Low active inventory+7 pts
- 5% below fair value+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish36Lucario Ultra Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-11.8%). Estimated fair value is $257 against a lowest active listing of $243. Valuation confidence is high based on 3-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-11.8% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 256.68 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 256.87 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 243.43 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.39 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $242 | Mercari | Near Mint | 76 | 18d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $242 | eBay | Near Mint | 82 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $249 | eBay | Near Mint | 71 | 13d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $283 | eBay | Near Mint | 63 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $288 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 60 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $305 | PWCC | Near Mint | 96 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $311 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 68 | 10d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $292 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 1d ago |
| $259 | eBay | Near Mint | 1d ago |
| $277 | eBay | Near Mint | 6d ago |
| $271 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 9d ago |
| $224 | eBay | Near Mint | 14d ago |
| $210 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 18d ago |
| $208 | PWCC | Near Mint | 20d ago |
| $224 | Mercari | Near Mint | 21d ago |
| $206 | Mercari | Near Mint | 27d ago |
| $201 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 28d ago |
| $214 | Mercari | Near Mint | 31d ago |
| $248 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 35d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Mewtwo V (Full Art)EX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
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Lugia Ultra RareEX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
| $312 | $270 | 13.6% | 6.4% | 6 | 50 |
Snorlax V (Full Art)EX Ruby & SapphirePSA 9.5Simulated
| $386 | $326 | 15.6% | 15.9% | 11 | 53 |