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Lt. Surge's Strategy — Hidden Fates — Uncommon

Lt. Surge's Strategy

Simulated

Lt. Surge's Strategy · Hidden Fates · Uncommon · 60

Character: Lt

high confidencebearish2930d 11.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$76.72
Lowest listing $62.7218.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$62.72
Base Case
$76.72
Bull Case
$90.45

Price History

Dec 8Range $58.47 – $105Jun 5

Opportunity Score

48
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+5 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish29

Lt. Surge's Strategy is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-11.8%). Estimated fair value is $77 against a lowest active listing of $63. Valuation confidence is high based on 10-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-11.8% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
10
Sales / Month
6.5
Velocity Score
33/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+13.0%
Confidence
87/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-28.6%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$62.72
All-in cost
$91.72+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$251
Expected proceeds
$65.4830% gem → $75.26 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$26.24
Breakeven graded value
$351value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
39.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-28.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
11active listings
Recent sold avg
$77.64mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$55.86cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$73.99
Median
$79.82
Mean
$82.30
Max
$93.39

Showing 15 of 16 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps79.7550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices70.3725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection69.2425%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$55.86TCGPlayerNear Mint9257d agoJun 10View
$61.42eBayNear Mint6173d agoJan 1View
$63.14eBayNear Mint8459d agoJan 1View
$65.95MercariNear Mint6562d agoJan 1View
$65.96TCGPlayerNear Mint9473d agoJun 7View
$68.41Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7762d agoJan 1View
$69.37MercariNear Mint8965d agoJan 1View
$69.71PWCCNear Mint9368d agoJun 7View
$69.72TCGPlayerNear Mint7358d agoJan 1View
$70.55PWCCNear Mint8875d agoJan 1View
$71.68TCGPlayerNear Mint7967d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$64.66Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint55d ago
$79.58eBayNear Mint72d ago
$75.24MercariNear Mint73d ago
$73.99MercariNear Mint76d ago
$79.82MercariNear Mint86d ago
$83.88eBayNear Mint86d ago
$86.29MercariNear Mint89d ago
$83.78eBayNear Mint92d ago
$91.48eBayNear Mint93d ago
$93.39eBayNear Mint94d ago
$92.75TCGPlayerNear Mint95d ago
$82.92TCGPlayerNear Mint99d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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