PokéAlpha
Back to dashboard

Rayquaza Holo Rare

Simulated

Rayquaza Holo Rare · HeartGold SoulSilver · Holo Rare · 118/123

Character: Rayquaza

high confidencebullish6830d 3.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$276
Lowest listing $24013.1% below
Bear Case
$241
Base Case
$276
Bull Case
$311

Price History

Dec 2Range $232$327May 30

Opportunity Score

49
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts
  • Price up 3% over 30 days+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish68

Rayquaza Holo Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+3.3%). Estimated fair value is $276 against a lowest active listing of $240. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
20
Sales / Month
14.5
Velocity Score
73/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+23.9%
Confidence
98/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps260.1450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices266.8725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection265.3725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.7920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$323TCGPlayerNear Mint8117d agoJan 1View
$323PWCCNear Mint9321d agoJan 1View
$333PWCCNear Mint6213d agoJan 1View
$363MercariNear Mint699d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$330eBayNear Mint22h ago
$334PWCCNear Mint1d ago
$313PWCCNear Mint2d ago
$283eBayNear Mint8d ago
$280MercariNear Mint9d ago
$257Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint13d ago
$287Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint17d ago
$276MercariNear Mint18d ago
$249TCGPlayerNear Mint26d ago
$258PWCCNear Mint27d ago
$255eBayNear Mint34d ago
$267eBayNear Mint35d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Umbreon PromoHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$393$3579.3%5.1%1739
Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
  • 16% below fair value+18 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$417$35215.7%8.6%2045
Rayquaza ex (Illustration Rare)Base SetSimulated
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$927$81811.7%11.1%1842
Umbreon Ultra RareHeartGold SoulSilverCGC 9Simulated
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • Population growth slowing+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
$673$56616.0%15.8%948
Rayquaza VMAX (Alt Art)Evolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
$716$59217.4%1.4%1256
Rayquaza Ultra RarePrismatic EvolutionsBGS 9Simulated
  • 15% below fair value+17 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$451$38614.5%1.4%1248