Price History
Opportunity Score
41- 12% below fair value+15 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+2 pts
- Price up 4% over 30 days+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish63Golem (BGS 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+3.7%). Estimated fair value is $177 against a lowest active listing of $155. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (5.4%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 2.3%/mo — steady supply across 6011 graded.
6,011 graded · 29% gem · +2.3%/mo
- Raw cost
- $155
- All-in cost
- $184+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $177
- Expected proceeds
- $46.1530% gem → $53.04 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$137.62
- Breakeven graded value
- $704value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.5dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 48.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -6.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 15active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $311mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $290cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $284
- Median
- $315
- Mean
- $327
- Max
- $402
Showing 28 of 28 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 179.47 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 181.01 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 178.46 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.71 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.18 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $290 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 68 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $291 | PWCC | Graded | 96 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $291 | PWCC | Graded | 92 | 71d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $292 | PWCC | Graded | 62 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $302 | Mercari | Graded | 77 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $309 | eBay | Graded | 71 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $320 | Mercari | Graded | 74 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $330 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 96 | 63d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $332 | Mercari | Graded | 84 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $343 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 82 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $357 | Mercari | Graded | 77 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $361 | Mercari | Graded | 61 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $322 | eBay | Graded | 56d ago |
| $333 | eBay | Graded | 56d ago |
| $319 | Mercari | Graded | 58d ago |
| $284 | Mercari | Graded | 64d ago |
| $307 | eBay | Graded | 66d ago |
| $307 | eBay | Graded | 66d ago |
| $336 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 76d ago |
| $286 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 77d ago |
| $305 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 80d ago |
| $310 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 81d ago |
| $293 | PWCC | Graded | 81d ago |
| $292 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 82d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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