Aerodactyl
SimulatedAerodactyl · Fossil · Rare Holo · 1
Character: Aerodactyl
Price History
Opportunity Score
50- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Low active inventory+4 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral54Aerodactyl is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-3.6%). Estimated fair value is $357 against a lowest active listing of $319. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $319
- All-in cost
- $348+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $1,274
- Expected proceeds
- $33330% gem → $382 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$14.98
- Breakeven graded value
- $1,332value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.5dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 41.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -15.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 19active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $222mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $189cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $198
- Median
- $220
- Mean
- $223
- Max
- $247
Showing 18 of 18 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 339.58 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 367.26 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 318.27 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.68 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $189 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 86 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $191 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 77 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $196 | eBay | Near Mint | 90 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $199 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 68 | 58d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $205 | PWCC | Near Mint | 73 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $218 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 71 | 65d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $219 | eBay | Near Mint | 80 | 69d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $223 | PWCC | Near Mint | 65 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $226 | PWCC | Near Mint | 88 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $228 | Mercari | Near Mint | 71 | 71d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $230 | Mercari | Near Mint | 68 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $231 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 79 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $202 | Mercari | Near Mint | 56d ago |
| $209 | Mercari | Near Mint | 60d ago |
| $232 | eBay | Near Mint | 62d ago |
| $206 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 67d ago |
| $231 | PWCC | Near Mint | 67d ago |
| $213 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 70d ago |
| $213 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 72d ago |
| $220 | eBay | Near Mint | 72d ago |
| $242 | eBay | Near Mint | 77d ago |
| $219 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 82d ago |
| $218 | eBay | Near Mint | 85d ago |
| $233 | Mercari | Near Mint | 85d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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