Price History
Opportunity Score
54- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- Low active inventory+8 pts
- Population growth slowing+8 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+5 pts
- Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral61Lugia ex (Illustration Rare) (CGC 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+1.2%). Estimated fair value is $772 against a lowest active listing of $686. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 757.22 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 739.84 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 748.96 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | 0.45 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.41 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $821 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 91 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $821 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 96 | 19d ago | May 31 | View |
| $844 | Mercari | Graded | 98 | 21d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $846 | eBay | Graded | 70 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $857 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 92 | 5d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $867 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 64 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $868 | PWCC | Graded | 81 | 11d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $878 | PWCC | Graded | 72 | 3d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $907 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 86 | 4d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $922 | eBay | Graded | 70 | 12d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $927 | PWCC | Graded | 77 | 14d ago | May 31 | View |
| $944 | eBay | Graded | 67 | 8d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $839 | Mercari | Graded | 4d ago |
| $867 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 6d ago |
| $801 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 8d ago |
| $796 | PWCC | Graded | 8d ago |
| $871 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 8d ago |
| $787 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 8d ago |
| $795 | Mercari | Graded | 11d ago |
| $847 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 15d ago |
| $894 | PWCC | Graded | 19d ago |
| $813 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 19d ago |
| $942 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 20d ago |
| $837 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 20d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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Same character or set.
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