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Scyther — Hidden Fates — Uncommon

Scyther

CGC 10Simulated

Scyther · Hidden Fates · Uncommon · 5

Character: Scyther

medium confidencebullish8830d ▲43.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$85.74
Lowest listing $82.174.2% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$69.88
Base Case
$85.74
Bull Case
$102

Price History

Dec 8Range $90.09 – $145Jun 5

Opportunity Score

43
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Price up 44% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • 4% below fair value+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts
  • Sales accelerating+3 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish88

Scyther (CGC 10) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+43.6%). Estimated fair value is $86 against a lowest active listing of $82. Valuation confidence is medium based on 10-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+43.6% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
10
Sales / Month
3.5
Velocity Score
18/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+7.6%
Total Graded
6,628
Gem Mint
3,717
Population Growth
-0.3%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-79.9%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 4.7%/mo — steady supply across 6412 graded.

6,412 graded · 36% gem · +4.7%/mo

Raw cost
$82.17
All-in cost
$111+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$85.74
Expected proceeds
$22.3830% gem → $25.72 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$88.79
Breakeven graded value
$426value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
44.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-7.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
14active listings
Recent sold avg
$127mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$117cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$112
Median
$133
Mean
$129
Max
$149

Showing 17 of 17 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps76.5250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices93.0125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection91.3525%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.1350%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.5220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$117TCGPlayerGraded7957d agoJan 1View
$119Facebook MarketplaceGraded9068d agoJan 1View
$121PWCCGraded8068d agoJan 1View
$121PWCCGraded9360d agoJan 1View
$122TCGPlayerGraded8368d agoJan 1View
$127eBayGraded9456d agoJan 1View
$131MercariGraded10063d agoJan 1View
$132PWCCGraded9470d agoJan 1View
$133Facebook MarketplaceGraded7871d agoJan 1View
$134eBayGraded8971d agoJan 1View
$137MercariGraded6162d agoJan 1View
$138Facebook MarketplaceGraded7961d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$124eBayGraded59d ago
$133eBayGraded59d ago
$135Facebook MarketplaceGraded63d ago
$125Facebook MarketplaceGraded63d ago
$138PWCCGraded64d ago
$135PWCCGraded71d ago
$149MercariGraded76d ago
$112MercariGraded87d ago
$113TCGPlayerGraded88d ago
$112eBayGraded89d ago
$117TCGPlayerGraded89d ago
$118PWCCGraded92d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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