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Bill's Analysis — Hidden Fates — Rare

Bill's Analysis

CGC 9Simulated

Bill's Analysis · Hidden Fates · Rare · 51

Character: Bill's

high confidencebullish9130d ▲19.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$47.01
Lowest listing $43.108.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$39.48
Base Case
$47.01
Bull Case
$54.93

Price History

Dec 8Range $67.72 – $117Jun 5

Opportunity Score

49
  • 8% below fair value+10 pts
  • Price up 20% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • Strong demand (15 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Population growth slowing+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish91

Bill's Analysis (CGC 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+19.9%). Estimated fair value is $47 against a lowest active listing of $43. Valuation confidence is high based on 9-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+19.9% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
9
Sales / Month
15.0
Velocity Score
75/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+14.8%
Total Graded
7,138
Gem Mint
1,938
Population Growth
+4.0%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-83.0%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 4.5%/mo — steady supply across 2084 graded.

2,084 graded · 55% gem · +4.5%/mo

Raw cost
$43.10
All-in cost
$72.10+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$47.01
Expected proceeds
$12.2730% gem → $14.10 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$59.83
Breakeven graded value
$276value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
6.0dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
24.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-19.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
16active listings
Recent sold avg
$82.43mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$66.45cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$72.28
Median
$85.91
Mean
$85.19
Max
$97.56

Showing 8 of 8 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps44.1950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices49.3925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection48.6625%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-2.0250%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.9520%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$66.45PWCCGraded7364d agoJan 1View
$66.53Facebook MarketplaceGraded8958d agoJun 9View
$67.37eBayGraded8355d agoJan 1View
$67.49Facebook MarketplaceGraded8474d agoJun 10View
$67.62eBayGraded6256d agoJan 1View
$69.36MercariGraded8670d agoJan 1View
$71.61eBayGraded9659d agoJan 1View
$71.99TCGPlayerGraded9773d agoJun 10View
$75.77Facebook MarketplaceGraded10073d agoJan 1View
$75.99Facebook MarketplaceGraded7357d agoJun 6View
$77.34MercariGraded8866d agoJun 7View
$77.80MercariGraded9164d agoJun 9View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$72.28Facebook MarketplaceGraded57d ago
$78.17MercariGraded63d ago
$78.59PWCCGraded66d ago
$89.76TCGPlayerGraded72d ago
$93.37MercariGraded86d ago
$97.56eBayGraded96d ago
$84.82TCGPlayerGraded97d ago
$86.99TCGPlayerGraded107d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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