PokéAlpha
Back to dashboard

Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare)

Simulated

Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare) · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Illustration Rare · 86/109

Character: Umbreon

high confidenceneutral4930d 4.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$404
Lowest listing $3698.7% below
Bear Case
$349
Base Case
$404
Bull Case
$459

Price History

Dec 2Range $378 – $587May 30

Opportunity Score

34
  • 9% below fair value+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (13 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral49

Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-4.9%). Estimated fair value is $404 against a lowest active listing of $369. Valuation confidence is high based on 18-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
18
Sales / Month
13.0
Velocity Score
65/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-9.9%
Confidence
98/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps406.3150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices414.7325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection419.825%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-1.9920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$335PWCCNear Mint7712d agoJan 1View
$339Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9216d agoJan 1View
$348eBayNear Mint9515d agoJan 1View
$352PWCCNear Mint615d agoJan 1View
$364Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6620d agoJan 1View
$378PWCCNear Mint977d agoJan 1View
$390MercariNear Mint846d agoJan 1View
$391MercariNear Mint904d agoJan 1View
$391eBayNear Mint706d agoJan 1View
$404TCGPlayerNear Mint10018d agoJan 1View
$410MercariNear Mint8614d agoJan 1View
$416TCGPlayerNear Mint7710d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$416MercariNear Mint2d ago
$484PWCCNear Mint7d ago
$414Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9d ago
$443MercariNear Mint9d ago
$407PWCCNear Mint10d ago
$444Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint11d ago
$412PWCCNear Mint12d ago
$436TCGPlayerNear Mint14d ago
$442PWCCNear Mint16d ago
$511eBayNear Mint18d ago
$514TCGPlayerNear Mint20d ago
$515PWCCNear Mint23d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Charizard Holo RareEX Ruby & SapphireBGS 9Simulated
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$460$38316.8%2.0%1452
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 9% below fair value+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$313$2878.6%10.7%1140
MoonbreonEvolving SkiesPSA 10Simulated
  • 7% below fair value+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$1,595$1,4906.5%4.6%1537
Umbreon Holo RareXY EvolutionsSimulated
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$239$19717.4%16.2%645
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
  • 8% below fair value+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$485$4468.0%1.8%2030
Umbreon PromoHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
$416$37310.4%5.6%553