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Golem — Hidden Fates — Rare

Golem

Simulated

Golem · Hidden Fates · Rare · 35

Character: Golem

high confidencebullish8130d ▲8.2%
Estimated Fair Value
$35.75
Lowest listing $32.449.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$30.37
Base Case
$35.75
Bull Case
$41.27

Price History

Dec 8Range $46.31 – $61.68Jun 5

Opportunity Score

46
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Sales accelerating+3 pts
  • Price up 8% over 30 days+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish81

Golem is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+8.2%). Estimated fair value is $36 against a lowest active listing of $32. Valuation confidence is high based on 4-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+8.2% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
4
Sales / Month
16.5
Velocity Score
83/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+8.3%
Confidence
85/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-44.9%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$32.44
All-in cost
$61.44+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$130
Expected proceeds
$33.8730% gem → $38.93 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.57
Breakeven graded value
$235value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
58.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-11.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
10active listings
Recent sold avg
$52.97mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$47.08cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$45.05
Median
$52.92
Mean
$52.62
Max
$57.90

Showing 20 of 20 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps34.4850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices35.9725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection35.7125%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.6720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$47.08PWCCNear Mint9655d agoJun 10View
$50.02PWCCNear Mint9471d agoJun 6View
$50.05PWCCNear Mint7570d agoJan 1View
$52.11TCGPlayerNear Mint9957d agoJun 7View
$56.30Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9267d agoJan 1View
$56.43Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6257d agoJun 8View
$58.68PWCCNear Mint8670d agoJan 1View
$59.93eBayNear Mint7557d agoJan 1View
$59.94eBayNear Mint9774d agoJan 1View
$60.31TCGPlayerNear Mint7971d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$49.80TCGPlayerNear Mint54d ago
$52.12TCGPlayerNear Mint55d ago
$57.00eBayNear Mint56d ago
$55.34PWCCNear Mint56d ago
$47.75PWCCNear Mint58d ago
$57.81PWCCNear Mint68d ago
$54.04PWCCNear Mint73d ago
$55.32PWCCNear Mint73d ago
$48.16TCGPlayerNear Mint73d ago
$53.46Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint73d ago
$51.06PWCCNear Mint73d ago
$49.52MercariNear Mint80d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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