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Cubone — Hidden Fates — Common

Cubone

BGS 10Simulated

Cubone · Hidden Fates · Common · 37

Character: Cubone

medium confidencebullish8730d ▲27.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$46.60
Lowest listing $40.0214.1% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$39.47
Base Case
$46.60
Bull Case
$54.13

Price History

Dec 8Range $91.11 – $138Jun 5

Opportunity Score

54
  • 14% below fair value+17 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Price up 27% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts
  • Sales accelerating+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish87

Cubone (BGS 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+27.1%). Estimated fair value is $47 against a lowest active listing of $40. Valuation confidence is medium based on 9-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+27.1% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
9
Sales / Month
3.0
Velocity Score
15/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+9.1%
Total Graded
1,351
Gem Mint
642
Population Growth
-0.7%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-82.4%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 5.2%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 1259 graded.

1,259 graded · 59% gem · +5.2%/mo

Raw cost
$40.02
All-in cost
$69.02+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$46.60
Expected proceeds
$12.1630% gem → $13.98 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$56.86
Breakeven graded value
$264value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.4dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
21.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-13.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
23active listings
Recent sold avg
$108mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$93.81cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$105
Median
$112
Mean
$111
Max
$114

Showing 6 of 9 sales · 3 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps4450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices45.5725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection48.825%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.3650%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.8320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$93.81TCGPlayerGraded8057d agoJan 1View
$94.20MercariGraded7258d agoJun 8View
$96.86Facebook MarketplaceGraded9760d agoJan 1View
$100PWCCGraded8765d agoJun 10View
$104eBayGraded8367d agoJan 1View
$106TCGPlayerGraded7564d agoJan 1View
$106Facebook MarketplaceGraded6664d agoJun 6View
$106PWCCGraded6758d agoJun 10View
$108MercariGraded6361d agoJan 1View
$108TCGPlayerGraded8960d agoJan 1View
$109Facebook MarketplaceGraded8162d agoJan 1View
$111eBayGraded6774d agoJun 7View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$112TCGPlayerGraded72d ago
$105PWCCGraded80d ago
$110eBayGraded82d ago
$112TCGPlayerGraded83d ago
$114eBayGraded86d ago
$96.29TCGPlayerGraded88d ago
$111TCGPlayerGraded92d ago
$128Facebook MarketplaceGraded103d ago
$130MercariGraded104d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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