Price History
Opportunity Score
28- Price up 25% over 30 days+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish85Kabutops (PSA 9) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+24.7%). Estimated fair value is $334 against a lowest active listing of $335. Valuation confidence is high based on 18-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+24.7% over 30d) with thin liquidity and rising graded population (5.1%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 3.5%/mo — steady supply across 6089 graded.
6,089 graded · 54% gem · +3.5%/mo
- Raw cost
- $335
- All-in cost
- $364+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $334
- Expected proceeds
- $87.1130% gem → $100 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$276.71
- Breakeven graded value
- $1,394value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 48.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -1.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 16active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $251mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $247cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $167
- Median
- $240
- Mean
- $235
- Max
- $290
Showing 19 of 19 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 307.26 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 390.69 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 385.68 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.56 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -1.49 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $247 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 75 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $251 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 100 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $252 | Mercari | Graded | 99 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $253 | eBay | Graded | 90 | 72d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $259 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 90 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $280 | Mercari | Graded | 80 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $298 | eBay | Graded | 88 | 68d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $299 | eBay | Graded | 89 | 66d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $303 | eBay | Graded | 90 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $304 | eBay | Graded | 96 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $306 | eBay | Graded | 82 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $307 | eBay | Graded | 92 | 74d ago | Jun 8 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $260 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 62d ago |
| $252 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 66d ago |
| $231 | Mercari | Graded | 66d ago |
| $262 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 70d ago |
| $265 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 71d ago |
| $271 | PWCC | Graded | 73d ago |
| $274 | Mercari | Graded | 74d ago |
| $290 | Mercari | Graded | 77d ago |
| $255 | Mercari | Graded | 80d ago |
| $231 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 81d ago |
| $253 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 84d ago |
| $240 | PWCC | Graded | 86d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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