Price History
Opportunity Score
24- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Price up 13% over 30 days+5 pts
- High valuation confidence+4 pts
- Population growth slowing+1 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish77Articuno (CGC 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+13.4%). Estimated fair value is $147 against a lowest active listing of $148. Valuation confidence is medium based on 23-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+13.4% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 1.9%/mo — steady supply across 8117 graded.
8,117 graded · 26% gem · +1.9%/mo
- Raw cost
- $148
- All-in cost
- $177+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $147
- Expected proceeds
- $38.4630% gem → $44.21 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$138.23
- Breakeven graded value
- $677value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.4dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 57.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -25.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 6active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $367mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $274cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $328
- Median
- $369
- Mean
- $373
- Max
- $413
Showing 14 of 14 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 141.67 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 168.96 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 148.32 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.12 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.28 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $362 | Mercari | Graded | 64d ago |
| $413 | eBay | Graded | 65d ago |
| $395 | Mercari | Graded | 69d ago |
| $365 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 70d ago |
| $359 | Mercari | Graded | 70d ago |
| $352 | PWCC | Graded | 73d ago |
| $328 | Mercari | Graded | 79d ago |
| $361 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 83d ago |
| $393 | eBay | Graded | 92d ago |
| $385 | Mercari | Graded | 95d ago |
| $391 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 95d ago |
| $373 | eBay | Graded | 96d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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