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Ekans — Hidden Fates — Common

Ekans

Simulated

Ekans · Hidden Fates · Common · 26

Character: Ekans

medium confidencebullish8830d ▲47.0%
Estimated Fair Value
$21.39
Lowest listing $19.0311.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$17.25
Base Case
$21.39
Bull Case
$25.78

Price History

Dec 8Range $41.47 – $74.66Jun 5

Opportunity Score

51
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • Price up 47% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish88

Ekans is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+47.0%). Estimated fair value is $21 against a lowest active listing of $19. Valuation confidence is medium based on 19-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+47.0% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
19
Sales / Month
4.0
Velocity Score
20/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+26.5%
Confidence
66/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-58.6%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$19.03
All-in cost
$48.03+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$76.12
Expected proceeds
$19.8730% gem → $22.84 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.16
Breakeven graded value
$184value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
46.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+2.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
14active listings
Recent sold avg
$48.29mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$49.34cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$40.47
Median
$48.95
Mean
$49.42
Max
$57.61

Showing 19 of 19 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps18.7750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices22.2225%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection21.525%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.2920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$49.34PWCCNear Mint6770d agoJun 8View
$51.48TCGPlayerNear Mint9363d agoJan 1View
$51.72eBayNear Mint7672d agoJan 1View
$57.22Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7566d agoJan 1View
$57.97PWCCNear Mint6959d agoJan 1View
$58.20Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7158d agoJun 6View
$58.51MercariNear Mint6962d agoJan 1View
$58.54MercariNear Mint9367d agoJan 1View
$59.47TCGPlayerNear Mint7166d agoJan 1View
$59.78PWCCNear Mint9757d agoJan 1View
$62.33PWCCNear Mint10065d agoJan 1View
$62.40PWCCNear Mint8470d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$53.48eBayNear Mint55d ago
$50.95MercariNear Mint56d ago
$44.41TCGPlayerNear Mint62d ago
$45.78MercariNear Mint67d ago
$49.24PWCCNear Mint70d ago
$46.26eBayNear Mint72d ago
$46.10Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint74d ago
$47.39Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint77d ago
$53.04Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint81d ago
$47.85eBayNear Mint83d ago
$48.95PWCCNear Mint86d ago
$46.02TCGPlayerNear Mint87d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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