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Espeon Secret Rare

BGS 10Simulated

Espeon Secret Rare · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Secret Rare · 99/207

Character: Espeon

high confidencebullish8530d 50.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$619
Lowest listing $643
Bear Case
$518
Base Case
$619
Bull Case
$729

Price History

Dec 2Range $494$822May 30

Opportunity Score

39
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • Price up 51% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish85

Espeon Secret Rare (BGS 10) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+50.7%). Estimated fair value is $619 against a lowest active listing of $643. Valuation confidence is high based on 9-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+50.7% over 30d) with thin liquidity and rising graded population (5.6%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
9
Sales / Month
8.5
Velocity Score
43/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+20.4%
Total Graded
6,558
Gem Mint
2,503
Population Growth
+5.6%
Rising — supply pressure

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps507.6450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices732.2125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection699.2325%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-2.7950%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.0920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$484MercariGraded7912d agoJun 2View
$518eBayGraded6113d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$517MercariGraded19d ago
$573MercariGraded19d ago
$586Facebook MarketplaceGraded29d ago
$495TCGPlayerGraded38d ago
$630Facebook MarketplaceGraded48d ago
$588Facebook MarketplaceGraded52d ago
$534eBayGraded59d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Charizard Secret RareScarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • 9% below fair value+10 pts
  • Price up 31% over 30 days+8 pts
$827$7548.8%31.3%2061
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$326$29110.8%9.6%1047
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
  • 14% below fair value+17 pts
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
$495$42514.2%8.8%258
Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare)Scarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$296$25613.7%16.0%2155
Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Simulated
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$583$50813.0%12.9%944
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$300$24518.3%12.9%1351